Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon December 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building E swell with strengthening E/SE-SE winds Mon, bigger Tue with gusty E/SE winds
• Moderate sized E swell Wed AM, easing with easing SE tending S’ly winds
• Easing swell Thu with SW winds ahead of sea breezes
• Small S swell Fri, easing into Sat
• Stronger S swells building later Sat, peaking Sun
• Small NE swells early next week

Recap

Fun waves Sat with 3-4ft sets, easing during the day and clean conditions early under SW winds. Sun saw clean leftovers with 2-3ft sets, easing during the day. Light winds today from the E with small E’ly swells to 1-2ft, building through the day with mod E’ly winds developing. 

This week and next week (Dec 25 - Jan5)

Model guidance has firmed over the weekend as a complex trough pattern and inland low pushing through into Victoria focus an onshore infeed this last week of 2023. The infeed into the low is focussed on Far Southern NSW and Tasmania before the low moves into the Tasman and drifts SE. We’ll see plenty of  E quadrant swell off the infeed. Frontal systems following this troughy pattern should supply S swell of moderate size late in the week and over NYE and New Years Day. Let’s look at specifics.

Increasing size tomorrow as the fetch aims up towards NETas with size building to 3-4ft under an E to E/SE flow.

The low moves offshore Wed with size maxing out in the 3-5ft range and SE winds tending S’ly as the low drifts away and a trough/front approach.

Well positioned fetch for NETas with plenty of E swell ahead

Thurs looks good with plenty of leftover size to 3-4ft, slowly easing during the day and winds from the SW tending to light SE-NE breezes in the a’noon.

Further ahead and a front later Thurs into Fri will generate S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches with light S’lies tending to variable winds as a trough approaches.

The last weekend of the year sees a stronger S swell. Sat sees a small mixed bag to 1-2ft early with building S swells in the a’noon to 2-3ft.

Those swells should peak NYE in the 4-5ft range as a large and powerful frontal system passes under the state.

Another trough/low system next week looks weaker than the current system and last one, so we’ll expect small NE windswell from winds feeding into the low, likely holding 2ft surf through early next week with easing S swells New Years Day.

Plenty to ride for the last week of the year.

Have a great Xmas and seeya Wed!