Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th Dec)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small leftover swells Mon small for the rest of this week
• Small S swell bump Sat, holding Sun morning before easing
• Small NE swell next Mon
• Potential for small E/NE swell mid next week

Recap

Solid E’ly swells Sat were in the 3-5ft range with 6ft sets and light winds. Sunday saw easing swells with a few 2-3ft sets, dropping through the day. Back to tiny surf today with a small NE windswell to 2ft developing this a’noon under fresh N’ly winds. 

This week and next week (Dec4- Dec 15)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough is creating a “doldrums” type pattern of slack pressure gradients and small swells this week, with a few wind changes to negotiate. No major swells expected this week. The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week. It’s unlikely for the system to reach far enough south to generate surf for NETas but there are some modelled outcomes suggesting it might.

In the short run we’re looking at small, NE swells tomorrow in the 2ft range, becoming clean as NW winds blow before a variable SE/SW flow in the a’noon.

Not much for the rest of the week with a weak, mobile front bringing a SW flow Wed before winds tend NE in a trough. No size from the change with 1-1.5ft surf from the S, persisting into Thurs with variable NW winds and a’noon seabreezes expected. Weak, marginal surf then extends through Fri.

Into the weekend and a weak front sees a small bump in S swell Sat with W tending SW then S’ly winds and an increase in size to 2ft.

That should hold into Sun with winds quickly N’ly again.

Next week looks small to start with some minor NE swell Mon into Tues from a fetch off the NSW Coast and size not likely to exceed 2ft.

A small amount of S swell wrap from a zonal fetch under the state looks to supply small S swell to 2-3ft into late Tues, easing Wed.

Further ahead and we should see some small E/NE swell develop mid next week as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman with winds off the NSW South Coast and Bass Strait aimed at Tasmania.

Source of small E/NE swell mid next week

We’ll also be keeping eyes on the TC as it potentially drifts down the East Coast although a lot would have to happen before it became a source of swell for NETas. 

Check back Wed for the latest.