Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 3)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Not much for the weekend, small and weak
• NE windswell from Tues next week persisting through the week
• Much stronger NE windswell Fri, peaking Sat, slowly easing Sun

Recap

Not much in the way of surf with minor S swells to less than a foot yesterday and today. A S’ly change is expected to produce some small S swell to 2-3ft this a’noon under fresh S’ly winds.

This weekend and next week (Nov 3- Nov10)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. S’ly winds tomorrow will blow out most spots and short range S swell to 2-3ft will ease through the day as the swell generating winds move E.

Winds back down Sun as high pressure moves over the Island with just weak breezes expected, tending E/NE  in the a’noon. No real surf to speak of, just some traces of S swell to a foot or so, becoming tiny in the a’noon. 

Into next week and the main story is a large high moving into the Tasman and becoming slow moving, setting up a summer-style blocking pattern with developing NE winds and NE windswell, becoming solid by the end of the week.

We’ll see that NE flow through most or all of the working week under present modelling as the slow moving high occupies the Tasman. Expect small surf to continue into the new week, with just tiny 1-2ft surf Mon. By Tues we should start to see a small uptick in NE winds swell, building to a fun size (2ft or so) into Wed and Thurs.

That NE’ly swell looks to be persistent under the slow moving pattern with high pressure drifting towards New Zealand. We should see a stronger uptick in size later next week as the N’ly fetch really ramps up off the South Coast down Bass Strait and past the East Coast (see below) late next week. Under current modelling we’ll see surf build into the 4-5ft range Fri, building further into Sat and slowly easing Sun.

Source of solid NE windswell late next week into the weekend

Expect revisions in size and timing through next week, but definitely pencil this one in.

Lets see how it looks on Mon, until then have a great weekend!