Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swell Tues
• Late spike in new S swell Wed
• Strong S swell event Thurs/Fri with better winds Fri
• Easing S swell Sat
• Building NE windswell Sun PM, peaking Mon AM with offshore winds
• Quality E/NE swell from low in Tasman Tues/Wed

Recap

Lot's of NE swell over the weekend as a low pressure system moved over the Island with Sat seeing 2-3ft of swell, bigger 3-4ft on Sun. Today is seeing clean leftovers in the 3ft range with offshore W/SW winds, tending S/SW late in the day and a late kick in new S swell to 2-3ft.

This week and next week (Oct 23 - Nov3)

We’ve got an October surprise with the formation of TC Lola between Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. Lola, under current track assessments will scythe through Vanuatu and cross Grand Terre (New Caledonia), fizzling out as a TC as it enters the Coral Sea. Thus, we won’t look towards Lola as a swell source. Plenty of other swell sources on the radar though this week with a strong frontal intrusion into the Tasman mid week, backed up by a monster high moving in from the Bight which will generate plenty of sizey S swell. Late in the week, a combination of inland upper trough and a long angled trough extending from TC Lola remnants is expected to form a powerful surface low off the sub-tropical NSW Coast (likely between Lord Howe and Norfolk Is). As modelled, gales will produce a large E’ly quadrant swell event, with maximum size in Northern NSW, grading smaller into temperate NSW with some small E/NE swell expected to make landfall in NETas. Other swell sources are also on the radar. 

In the short run we’ll see a small mixed bag of minor S swell to 2ft tomorrow with a developing N’ly flow expected to whip up some small NE windswell to 2ft late in the a’noon.

W’ly winds freshen o’night as a major front approaches, tending W/NW before the front passes and winds shift W/SW-SW in the a’noon. NE windswell peaks in the morning to 3ft, easing during the day. A late kick in new short range S swell should see surf to 2ft in the a’noon. 

Joining the short range S swell on Thurs will be more powerful, longer period S swell trains from a long, broad fetch of gales in the Tasman (see below). This will have size and juice, likely pushing up into the 6-8ft range at S exposed breaks under fresh SW-S winds.

That strong blend of S swell trains extends into Fri with similar size surf early under light winds, easing during the a’noon. Winds should tend to light seabreezes in the a’noon.

Into the weekend and S swell slowly eases from 4ft to 2-3ft Sat under a developing N’ly flow.

The easing trend continues into Sun before a building NE windswell reverses the trend in the a’noon under freshening N-NE winds.  That should see a Mon peak in NE windswell to 3ft with winds tending offshore as a front pushes through. S/SE groundswell from the passage of the front supplies some 2-3ft sets.

The powerful surface low in the Northern Tasman this weekend is expected to send some quality E/NE swell down to NETas, arriving Tues to 3ft under W’ly winds.

Size may build a notch Wed to 3-4ft but winds look uncertain with a potential S’ly change.

Lets see how it looks Wed.

Seeya then.