Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri October 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/NE-NE swell building Sat under fresh NE winds
• Strong NE swell Sun with NW winds with leftovers on Mon
• Small spike in S swell Mon, easing quickly Tues
• Another strong S swell late Wed persisting into Thurs/Fri

Recap

No surf to speak of since Wed with just tiny S swells Thurs and not much more today. Anklesnappers in the 1ft range basically. More action this weekend.

This weekend and next week (Oct 20 - 27)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. An approaching complex trough/front and low is tightening pressure gradients with a high in the central Tasman and expected to see freshening NE winds Sat. Expect light winds tomorrow before winds tend E, then NE and freshen in the a’noon. With that will come building levels of NE windswell to 3-4ft.

Size ramps up further o/night with Sun seeing a peak in size to 4-5ft in the morning with winds quickly shifting NW as the low moves over the state. Size will ease through the a’noon but get on it despite the unsettled weather.

Into next week and we’ll only see a small S swell from the return flow on Mon as the low rapidly weakens. Expect size to 2-3ft under S-SE winds easing quickly. Leftover NE-E/NE swell holds 3ft sets through the morning under clean conditions with SW winds.

A much stronger front approaches Wed. We may see some small NE swell to 2ft before a spike in new S swell to 3ft in the a’noon as winds shift from NW to SW. 

The fetch is very broad, basically the entire lower Tasman covered in gales under current modelling. That suggests plenty of size from the S-S/SE  Thurs, persisting into Fri. We’ll see how it looks Mon, but pencilling in sets to 6-8ft Thurs , with a slow easing into Fri seems justified.

Easing swells from the S-S/SE then extend through the weekend likely remaining a surfable size.

Longer term and most of the action is too far north for Tas, although we may see another round of NE windswell later next weekend. 

Let’s see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!