Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Mon with S’ly winds, a’noon spike in new S swell
• Strong S swell Tues AM with winds shifting NW, easing in the PM
• Small/tiny surf most of next week, possibly minor S swell wrap Thurs
• E/NE swell Sat
• Strong NE swell Sun
• Possible strong spike in S swell Sun PM/Mon- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Easing surf Sat to 1-2ft was replaced by a moderate S swell on Sun with sets to 3ft under mostly W’ly winds. Size has rolled back today into the 12-2ft range at S facing beaches with W’ly winds tending fresh/strong S’ly. 

This week and next week (Oct 16 - 27)

A strong front and embedded trough of low pressure are currently located just off the Gippsland Coast, expected too move NE into the Tasman and driving a strong/ near gale force S’ly flow up the Tasmanian Coast today. There’ll be an initial burst of S swell associated with the proximate fetch before the low moves NE out of the Tasmanian swell window.

In the short run a spike in S swell today holds into tomorrow with sets to 3-5ft at S facing beaches and early SW winds quickly shifting NW, which should produce some great conditions. Through the a’noon, we’ll see size quickly drop away.

Unfortunately that will lead to a week of mostly tiny surf. A deep low passing under the state with a very zonal fetch may see some long period S swell wrap but we’re looking at 2ft tops on Thurs morning. Conditions should be clean with NW winds. 

We may see some swell on the weekend as the low stalls in the Tasman near NZ, with an infeed into the NE flank supplying some E/NE swell for Eastern Tasmania. We’ll see how models shape up but for now, pencil in 2-3ft of E/NE swell for Sat under developing E-E/NE winds as a cut-off low approaches from the W.

Those winds are likely to generate some substantial NE swell on Sunday into the 3-4ft range. With winds dependent on the position of the low.

The cut-off low passes SE of Tasmania Sun into Mon. We’ll strike a note of caution due to model divergence but some sort of S swell will be on the cards , possibly sizey Sun into Mon as the low moves into the Tasman. Gale force SW winds are possible Sun into Mon.

Spike in large S swell if this map comes off, check back Wed for updates

Lets see how it shapes up on Wed because there’s not much of interest after that.

Seeya Wed.