Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 13th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulses Thurs/Fri
• Light W to NW winds through the week
• Small NE windswell Sat
• Quiet start to next week,  NE windswell Tues/Wed next week

Recap

S swells have continued to pulse with S facing beaches yesterday seeing 2-3ft sets under light winds, similar size today with NW winds. 

This week and next (Sep13 - Sep22)

Not much has changed since Mon. We still have a large (1032hPa) high slow moving over NSW directing light N’lies over Tasmania. A slow moving frontal progression is gradually working it’s way clear of New Zealand longitudes while sending pulses of S’ly groundswell our way. High pressure does clear the coast this week with an increasing N’ly flow before a zonal pattern brings a W-NW flow for the weekend.  Let’s look at the details.

In the short run, small S’ly pulses pad out the rest of the week, with light winds tending N’ly tomorrow and 2ft surf at S facing beaches. A last bump in size Fri is expected to be of a similar size with winds starting to tend NW-W/NW in the a’noon.

Winds freshen from the W/NW Sat as a zonal front and complex low pass to the South. We’ll see some small NE swell Sat from a fetch off the NSW Coast, likely in the 2-3ft range.

Size eases Sun with continuing NW-W/NW winds. A few 1-2ft waves may see some surfable options on the right equipment. 

Models are showing some small S’ly groundswell wrap for Mon, unlikely to be more than 1-2ft at S facing beaches, tiny/flat elsewhere, under continuing NW-W/NW winds.

Tues sees a developing N’ly fetch off there NSW Coast (see below), with an a’noon increase in NE swell likely under NW winds. The fetch matures overnight and Wed looks a good bet for some chunky NE swell to 3-4ft with offshore winds and a possible a’noon wind change as a trough crosses the Island.

Source of NE swell next week

Further ahead and easing NE swells Thurs look to replaced by new S swell Fri as a front/low passes to the south.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how that is shaping up.

Seeya then.