Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 6th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another round of NE windswell Thurs with solid NE windswell Fri and offshore winds
• Mod S swell Sat, with a mild increase likely Sun with W winds shifting S’ly
• Solid S swells likely through to mid next week 

Recap

Clean, easing NE windswell saw some 3-4ft surf early, with offshore winds, and an easing trend in the a’noon. Small NE leftovers to 1-1.5ft today under SW winds which have tended NW through the day. 

This week and next (Sep4 - Sep15)

A front and small low are now racing across the Tasman with a high over NSW moving into the Tasman and directing a freshening N’ly flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard down to Tasmania. So far, so spring. A complex low, front and trough then approaches from the W, bringing a strong regime of W’ly-SW’ly winds and a series of S swells. There’s some changes to this outlook compared to Mon, so read on for details. 

In the short run increased N’lies bring increased NE windswell through tomorrow, building into the 2-3ft range during the day under N’ly winds. 

Friday looks dynamic with fresh/strong winds feeding into an approaching complex low we should see solid NE swell to 4-5ft with winds shifting from strong NNW to W/NW late in the day. Don’t miss Fri.

The weekend also looks dynamic as the return flow from the low as it passes into the Tasman generates plenty of S swell. NE swell leftovers to 2-3ft on Sat will be overtaken by new S swell building to 3ft at S exposed breaks under fresh W winds tending W/SW late in the day.

S swell then holds at similar sizes on Sun with W winds shifting S’ly as the low/front clears the area. 

Into next week and plenty of S swell ahead. A secondary front with strong gales (see below) adds another strong pulse of S swell now expected late Mon in the 4-5ft range with a W’ly flow expected. This size should hold into Tues or build a notch further before easing.

A tertiary front then follows into the Tasman, on the same track working on an already active sea state. It’s likely models are underestimating swells from this source but we’re looking at mod S swells, tending S/SE through Wed and Thurs, with a very slow easing trend into late next week.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. 

Seeya then.