Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Possibly just rideable NE windswell Tues
• More marginal NE windswell possible Fri
• Small S swell Sat, bigger Sun with S-SE winds
• Possible E’ly swells next week, check back for updates Wed

Recap

Tiny surf continued over the weekend with S swell in the 1ft range Sat almost rideable. Since then we’ve seen surf in the 0.5-1ft range Sun continue into today with mod NW winds.

This week and next (Aug 21 - Sep1)

The Tasman Sea is looking very benign to start the week with a large area of weak high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and extending into the Tasman directing a weak N’ly flow down the South Coast of NSW. A weak front and trough  will bring a wind change tomorrow but with no significant swell. Next week looks a little more active. Read on for details.

In the short run and N’ly tending W/NW winds tomorrow see some small NE windswell in the water, up to 1-1.5ft before a S’ly change during the late a’noon.

W-NW winds then return for Wed-Fri and with no significant swell sources on hand we’ll see surf go back to tiny/flat across the region. Keep expectations low, there may be a rideable wave from small NE windswell Fri morning and some just rideable S swell wrap Fri PM.

The weekend should see some rideable surf. A passing front Fri leaves a trailing S’ly fetch into Sat, anchored by a huge high approaching from the Bight. That should see some small S swell build into Sat in the 2ft range with S-S/SE winds being a problem.

Slightly stronger S swell Sun in the 3ft range should be on offer with continuing S-SE winds, tending light SE as high pressure briefly sets up a weak ridge.

Into next week and strong high pressure moves East of Tasmania. Models are suggesting various low pressure troughs in the Tasman, which may form fetches aimed at Tas. Possibly an E’ly swell mid week from a Cook Strait fetch (see below).

Potential source of E swell next week

We may see some NE windswell form mid next week as well as the back of the high forms a NE fetch off the South Coast.

We’ll see how those options are stacking up on Wed.

Seeya then.