Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 10th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S’ly swell easing Mon
• More S’ly swell likely Tues/Wed- very minor though 
• Fresh W’ly to NW’ly winds most of next week
• Likely tiny surf over the weekend and extending into next week

Recap

NE swell reached 2-3ft on Sat under fresh NW winds with small leftovers Sun in the 1ft range. Today is mostly tiny with a small S swell to 1-2ft or less at S facing beaches.

This week and next week (Jul 10 - 21)

Another week begins with a classic winter El Niño pattern. High pressure over the continent with a W’ly flow being enhanced by a series of mobile fronts and parent lows, with tiny amounts of S swell wrap. Nothing of any size its expected due to the zonal and mobile nature of the fetches so you’ll need to find a swell magnet to find anything rideable. 

We’re only looking at tiny amounts of S swell Tues and into Wed with a continuing fresh W to NW flow.

Marginal S swells expected from rapid moving fronts under Tasmania

Thurs may see some trace of long period S swell wrap in the 1-2ft range at S exposed breaks with similar winds.

Fri into the weekend retreats back to tiny with a small chance of some N’ly windswell wrap from NW gales out of Bass Strait.

Expect tiny surf over the weekend.

Weak, small surf looks to extend into next week. GFS has a weak front pushing into the Tasman which may offer a minor S swell Mon. EC has the front being pushed well to the south by a weak, blocking high pressure cell. 

We may well see tiny/flat surf extend through to the middle of next week under current modelling.

Longer term and EC is modelling a potential trough of low pressure in the Tasman later next week which may have some good swell potential. So far, no other models are interested.

Let’s see how Wed is shaping up, hopefully with something juicier on the radar to talk about.