Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent pulses of S/SE-SE swell for the week, strongest Thursday AM and Friday, easing Saturday
• Possible small NE windswell Sat
• S’ly swell pulse Sun, easing Mon
• More S’ly swell likely Tues/Wed

Recap

Small S-S/SE groundswell to 1-2ft has pulsed slightly today into the 2ft range with variable tending NW winds offering clean conditions. 

This week and weekend (Jul 5 - 9)

We’re currently seeing a tropical air mass across the continent  and trough, and strong node of the Long Wave Trough exit our sphere of influence to the East and far South. A more typical winter pattern which we saw in June is set to return, with high pressure over the continent ridging against frontal activity with a W’ly flow extending right up to the sub-tropics. Residual S/SE groundswell pulses from the off axis fetch as it drifted slowly SE of the South Island will put a floor under wave heights before we see a fresh round of S swell early next week. 

In the short run todays small pulse holds into Thurs with W’ly winds tending NW in the a’noon and inconsistent 2-3ft sets. Friday's pulse should push a little stronger with 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets before easing back from 2-3ft Saturday. All other locations will be smaller thanks to the southerly angle of the swells. Expect continuing NW tending W’ly winds Fri, tending more NW on Sat.

Over the weekend and gale force NW winds out of Bass Strait and extending down the East Coast may see some small NE windswell wrap into exposed southern ends but keep expectations low.

Sunday sees a strong front push through into the Tasman and a fetch of strong winds below the state should generate a fresh round of S swell to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks under strong W-W/SW winds.

Strong front brings S swell Sun/Mon

Into next week and  there’s model divergence over the strength of the next front pushing through Tuesday with EC suggesting a similarly strong front to Sun, and another moderate S’ly swell up in the  2-3ft range likely Tues easing Wed. GFS has a more modest, zonally oriented front, with a smaller S swell for Tues/Wed.

Either way we should see settled conditions as high pressure moves over NSW, with light winds tending N’ly towards the end of the week possibly bringing some NE windswell although NW winds are more likely. 

Further ahead we’ll see another low pressure complex approaching from the Southern Ocean late next week into the weekend, at this stage favouring the Southern states for swell production. By Fri we should have a better idea of how much, if any S swell will be on offer for our region as it passes through our southern swell window.

Check back then for the latest.