Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 19th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Tues, holding into Wed before easing 
• Chunky NE swell Fri
• Combination of E/NE-E swells this weekend wth offshore winds
• Small again into next week

Recap

We saw some workable NE windswell Sat in the 2-3ft range, dropping back to tiny on Sun. A small NE windswell in the 1ft range is on offer today under W/NW winds before a W/SW change as a low approaches  under the state and a decaying front moves away to the NE. 

This week and next week (Jun 19 - 30)

High pressure over the continent its still ridging along it’s Southern flank with a westerly belt creating flat, groomed conditions. A deep, compact  low is well SW of Tasmania, weakening as it enters the lower Tasman. A decaying front linked to the low spawns a broad area of low pressure in the Tasman tomorrow and then lingers in the Tasman for most of the week. 

In the short run we’ll see winds swing SW as the low drifts SE of the state and weakens. S swell from the gales around the low before it weakened will build through the a’noon into the 2ft range, holding into Wed morning at similar sizes before easing through the day. Expect winds to tend variable on Wed after early W to SW winds.

Tiny surf establishes Thurs with light winds. 

The end of the week now looks good for a chunky NE windswell as twin high pressures develop a fetch of NE winds off the South Coast which intensify in response to approaching frontal systems. There’ll also be some E-E/NE swell from a fetch near the North Island. Expect surf to build into the 4-5ft range during the day under fresh NE winds.

The weekend looks good as winds tend more NW, and NE swell tends E/NE from a fetch feeding into a low which moves NE of the Island (see below). Clean 3-4ft surf is potentially on offer Sat, extending into Sun with offshore winds.

E/NE fetch well aimed at the Island Fri

Into next week and no real change to the zonal pattern into next week. High pressure over the continent and a W’ly flow from approaching fronts.

At this stage we’re looking at more very small surf at least through the early/mid part of next week. 

An approaching polar low and complex frontal system mid next week offers up some potential for S swell pulses later next week, but we’ll have to see how that shapes up on Wed before we start to dial in any specifics. 

Check back then and we’ll have a fresh look at it.