Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 22nd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S swell pulse Sun, holding Mon before easing with offshore winds
• More small S swell pulses next week, with wintry offshore winds
• NE windswell potential for Thurs
• More small S swell pulses this weekend, biggest Sun
• S swell keeps coming into the medium  term, possibly more significant Wed next week

Recap

Small mix of swells Sat in the 1-2f range with offshore winds. Sunday saw a solid spike in S swell as a strong front pushed NE pas Tasmania with size to 4-5ft and strong SW winds. Today has seen easing S swell with a few 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches, and light W’ly winds, tending NW in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (May22– June 2)

A winter calibre front and low has now transited the Tasman, after generating a solid S swell for the Eastern Tasmania Sun/Mon. Large high pressure (1032 hPa)is moving across inland NSW with fronts to the south bringing cool W’ly winds to the region, for the next few days.  Late this week, likely Fri, we’ll see a cold front and upper trough combine to form another deep, coastal low possibly with gales to strong gales but too far North to be a source of swell for Tasmania. Prior to that we may see some pre-frontal N’ly winds generate a quick hit of NE windswell.

In the short run and small, long period S swell trains are on the menu for Tues, generated by continuing frontal activity in the lower Tasman mostly aimed at New Zealand targets. Offshore W/NW winds through the morning are likely to tend W through the a’noon. S swell magnets should see some 2ft sets through the day from a mix of long period and mid period S swell, clean as a whistle under groomed conditions. 

Small S swell trains keep tiny surf just rideable on Wed with 1-2ft surf at S facing beaches and W-NW winds.

Freshening pre-frontal N’lies on Thurs are poorly aligned but we may see a strong enough windfield to generate some small NE windswell, in the 2ft range, possibly 2-3ft.

By Friday we’ll be back to tiny S swell with a deep Tasman low forming too far north to generate any meaningful S swell for NETas. Winds remain fresh and gusty from the W to W/NW as a complex low below the state blasts a W’ly flow across the Island.

The weekend will see more small S swell pulses being  generated by frontal activity and a deep low below the state. Nothing sizey is expected, just small 1-2ft surf Sat, with a slight kick in size Sun to 2-3ft. Groomed conditions continue under a W’ly flow.

Into next week Offshore winds continue into early next week and frontal activity below Australia remains turned up, better aimed for Victoria but still sending small, long period S swells our way. 

A stronger front then looks to approach mid week, suggesting a moderate S swell blast Wed.

We’ll see how all this is shaping up on Wed, seeya then.