Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 19th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, fun E’ly swell Sat/Sun with offshore winds
• Strong S swell pulse Sun, holding Mon before easing with offshore winds
• More S swell pulses next week, with offshore winds
• S swell continues into the medium term

Recap

Small S swells were in the 1-2ft range yesterday at S facing beaches under light winds, with even smaller surf today under a SW flow which tended light/variable through the day. 

This weekend and next week (May19– May 26)

We’re expecting some fun waves for the weekend, with our Tasman low stalling and deepening over the last 24-36hrs, slightly further away from NZ than modelled. That’s allowed E’ly quarter low end gales to develop in our swell window.  With a blend of E’ly quadrant swell trains in the water we should see some 2-3ft sets tomorrow under W to NW winds.

Lots of size now expected to fill in Sun with a strong cold front pushing gales NE into the Tasman in a wide swathe and a deeper low tracking well to the south with stronger gales, albeit not quite connected to the frontal fetch. We’ll see size build from 2-3ft to 4-5ft at S facing beaches under a fresh SW flow.

That peak will come down into Mon with size easing from 4-5ft, to 3ft during the day. Winds look great with a weak front pushing through Bass Strait and high pressure moving over the area generating W’ly winds.

Strong frontal activity persists under Tasmania right through next week and although the fetches are very zonal (W-E) swell models do tend to underestimate swell production and refraction into the Tasman Sea from these fetches. 

Winds look great for most of next week with the high pressure cell sitting far enough north for a synoptic W’ly flow .We’ll pencil in reinforcing pulses for Tues/Wed likely in the 2ft range at S facing beaches, easing into Thurs with another pulse Fri.

We’ll see how those are shaping up when we come back on Mon. More S swell  looks to be on the menu as we enter the week 29/5, although at this stage in the small range as the fetches remain zonal and not penetrating fully into the Tasman Sea.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!