Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 15th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf extends into Mon
• S swell spike expected Tues next week, easing through Wed
• Small S swell pulses expected late next week into the weekend
• More small S swell pulses next week, biggest Tues. 

Recap

Nothing much to recap with tiny surf over the less than a foot both days and extending into today with winds now tending N/NW and freshening before a front tomorrow.

This week and next week (May15– May 26)

A slow moving high in the Tasman has been gradually weakening over the weekend while a disjointed coastal trough develops at either end of the NSW coast. Pre-frontal NW winds  will be replaced late Tues into Wed by a stiff S’ly change as a front pushes into the Tasman. The front interacts with the trough to form a surface low off the North Coast but consistent with Fridays notes the surface low is expected to rapidly move away towards New Zealand later Wed into Thurs, with a short spike in swell for NETas. More small S swell pulses are expected in the medium term.

In the short run and expect a brief period of fresh NW winds tomorrow before the front hits, bringing a fresh SSW change. Along with the wind will be a spike in new S swell, pushing up to 3ft at S facibng beaches, albeit wind affected. 

Front brings a small spike in S swell tomorrow

Get in early for the 2-3ft leftovers Wed, which will ease through the day. Mod SW-S winds will ease through the day and tend variable before a weak front brings a light W’ly flow to groom the easing swells.

Light W’ly winds extend into Thurs with small leftover S swells to 1-2ft at S facing beaches.

Small S swells continue into Friday, along with some minor E/SE swell being radially spread off an off-axis fetch from the low in the Tasman. Nothing more than 2ft is expected but conditions will be clean enough under morning SW breezes that tend W’ly in the a’noon. 

Into the weekend and we’re looking at more small S swell with Sat seeing 1-2ft surf under SW winds. Sunday looks a better bet for a little more size as a deeper fetch produces a little more action, up into the 2ft range with some bigger sets at S facing beaches and W/SW winds.

We’re looking at continuing small S swell pulses into early next week as fronts traverse the lower Tasman. There’s a bit of model divergence over the strength of these fronts so expect some rejigging in size and timing as we move through the week. They won’t be major swell events anyway we slice it- so we’ll be looking towards S facing beaches and swell magnets to make the most of the size on offer. 

The northern extremity of a front is expected to bring another round of SW-SSW wind Mon with a small late kick in S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches.

Tues looks a better bet with pre-frontal W/NW winds and a kick in S swell offering up tasty waves at S facing beaches in the 3-4ft range.

S swells look to continue from mid next week possibly with a bit more size as a high in the Tasman shifts E later next week. We’ll flag that for now and see how it’s shaping up when we come back on Wed.

See you then.