Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 12th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swells later this week and into the weekend
• Tiny surf extends into next week
• S swell spike expected Tues next week, easing through Wed
• Small S swell pulses expected late next week into the weekend

Recap

Easing S swell yesterday with surf to 2ft at S facing beaches and light winds. Today has seen even smaller 1ft surf with W’ly winds. 

This weekend and next week (May12– May 19)

No change to the weekend f/cast. Reinforcing high pressure moves into the Tasman, rebuilding a ridge up the sub-tropical coast with continuing light winds, variable over the weekend around a lingering trough.

No swell sources for the weekend so we’re looking at tiny surf across the weekend with just a slight increase in minor S swell Sunday, no more than 1ft though. 

Strong high pressure in the Tasman early next week will have a firm ridge up along the QLD Coast with the focus of the ridge and wind-field in the Coral Sea starting to move north in accordance with seasonal shifts, outside of the East Tas swell window. Thus we’re looking at tiny surf continuing into Mon with NW winds.

We should see a step change Tues as a front pushes up past NETas delivering a spike in new S swell to 4ft at S facing beaches under fresh SSW-S winds. The front moves quickly away Wed so we’ll see S swell drop away quickly Wed with a  tiny day expected Thurs.

Front delivers spike in S swell Tues

More frontal activity behind the mid week front looks to supply small S swells late next week and the weekend 20-21/5. 

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Mon, continuing troughiness and instability in the Tasman Sea at a time when seasonal expectations for ECL’s are at their maximum suggests we won’t have to wait too long for the next major swell event.

Check back Mon and have a great weekend!