Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 10th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of size easing through Wed
• Easing swells later this week and into the weekend
• Tiny surf extends into next week
• S swell spike expected Tues next week, easing through Wed

Recap

S swell peaked yesterday, a day early with a front bringing 3ft of surf to S facing beaches under SW winds. Today has seen an early peak in size to 3ft, easing through the day with W-SW winds continuing. 

This week and next week (May10– May 19)

The strong reinforcing cold front is now almost across the Tasman with a large (1031hPa) high moving across from the Bight and already setting up a ridge along the QLD Coast. High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week , before a front and possible low brings another strong S’ly surge with an accompanying S swell next week.

In the short run and we’ll see winds continue out of the SW through the morning before tending variable then N/NW in the a’noon as high pressure drifts NE of the state and a front approaches from the W. Get in for the last of the S swell with a few sets to 2-3ft early, easing through the day.

Following this S swell we’ll see tiny surf set in as the S’ly swell window is backed and high pressure build a ridge up the QLD coast with swell generating winds too far North for Tasmania. Expect surf to drop to tiny/flat Fri with the flat spell expected to extend through the weekend and into early next week.

The next swell should be in track for Tues next week under current modelling as a trough forms off the NSW Coast, closely followed by a front passing into the Tasman (see below). That should see surf push up into the 3-4ft range under fresh W/SW winds tending S/SW as the front passes by.

Cold front brings a S swell spike next week

It looks to be a quick spike with size quickly easing through Wed.

Further ahead into the medium range suggests a pause with quiet surf next weekend 20-21/5, possibly with some small S swell. Probably a good chance to fix some dings.

Check back Fri for the latest and a last look at the weekend.