Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building N/NE windswell Thu with gusty N-N/NW winds, easing Fri with N/NW-NW winds
• Small mixed bag this weekend tending to better quality E/NE swell later Sun
• Good quality E/NE swell building Mon, peaking Tues at sizey levels with light winds expected
• Possible S swell later next week, check back Wed for details

Recap

Small levels of E/NE swell supplied some surfable 1-2ft waves over the weekend with light winds and offshore breezes both mornings. Today has seen similar size surf with light/mod NW winds.

This week and next week (Apr 24 - May5)

As expected a monster high (1035hPa) is currently drifting into the Tasman Sea, roughly equidistant between the South Coast and Tasmania. A very firm ridge is established from the Mid North Coast right up to tropical QLD, with weaker pressure gradients along the temperate NSW coast. That high is expected to occupy the Tasman for most of the week - sitting just high enough to allow traces of S swell into the Tasman. The major swell generator will a broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman which will be enhanced later in the week as a broad tropical low tracks southwards from New Caledonia and into the wide open Eastern swell window, bringing quality E/NE swell to NE Tas later in the weekend and early next week.

Not much in the short term- a few tiny days to get through with zonal S swells bypassing NETas.

With the dominant high out in the Tasman and slow moving we’ll see a N’ly fetch develop Thurs with size building into the 2-3ft range during the day. 

Size holds into Fri morning before easing as the fetch gets shunted eastwards by an approaching front. Get in early with winds tending offshore and size easing through the day.

Into the weekend and we’re looking at a small mix of swells both days, mostly in the 1-2ft range with W’ly winds as fronts sweep under the state.

We may see some E/NE groundswell show up Sun in the 2ft range so check back Wed for timing. At present Mon looks a better bet.

Early next week see some quality E/NE swell as the tropical-spawned low tracks down the inside of New Zealand spraying the East Cast down to Tasmania with swell.

Ex tropical low drifting down the insid of the North Island bringing swell for NETas next week

Mon should see surf build into the 3ft range with light winds.

Surf builds further into the 4-5ft range Tues, which should be the peak of the swell with light winds expected.

Further ahead and models are divergent with the potential for remnants of the tropical low to form a larger low in the Tasman with S swell towards the end of next week.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how that is shaping up.