Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf Sat with N’ly winds
• Building E/NE swell Sun with a fresh SSW change
• Great run of solid E/NE swell Mon-Wed, easing Thurs with offshore winds

Recap

Moderate SE swell has held wave heights in the 3ft range since Wed with light S-SE winds Thurs now tending E/SE -NE through Friday. 

This weekend and next week (Apr 15 - 21)

No great change to a very dynamic f/cast. Easing surf Sat should see a few 2-3ft waves early with a NE-N flow freshening through the day.

Sunday looks a much better bet as E swell from a deepening trough in the Tasman rapidly ramps up from 2-3ft to 4-5ft during the day. Early NW-W/NW winds will tend fresh SSW as a cold front pushes through but there’ll be heaps of swell at more protected locations.

Into next week and we’re getting more clarity on the dynamic situation expected to unfold next week. The current small low off the North Coast quickly gets whisked away towards New Zealand and becomes enjoined in a long, NW-SE blocking trough pattern, which is expected to have more low pressure centres embedded in it next week. 

Great swell producing fetch setting up for NETas over the weekend

Initially the low enhances a broad E-E/NE wind infeed over the weekend, contracting NE into a low pressure centre near the North Island early next week. This fetch is well aimed for Eastern Tasmania and will see a few days of solid E/NE swell from Mon-Thurs. 

Expect size up into the 4-6ft range Mon, hovering in the 3-5ft range through Tues and Wed and slowly easing Thurs as the trough/block pattern breaks down.

Winds look fantastic Mon and Tues as a frontal system to the South drives a W’ly flow across the Island, with winds still great Wed/Thurs under a light/variable flow. 

Longer term and we’re likely to see easing swells into next weekend with not much on the radar as fronts get shunted southwards and a fetch in the Tasman is too far north for Tasmania.

We’ll see how that shapes up on Mon, but we’ll have plenty to talk about with the upcoming pattern.

Check back then and have a great weekend!