Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 12th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Lighter SW tending SE-E winds Wed, tending ESE-E Thurs/Fri
• Moderate levels of SE-E/SE swell through the end of the week and weekend
• Fresh S/SE winds Thu/Fri, likely lighter S/SW early
• Fresh E tending NE winds Sat
• Gusty N/NE tending N/NW Sun with a possible gusty SW-S change
• Moderate sized + levels of E/NE swell building Mon week and lasting most of next week

Recap

Strong straight S swell trains yesterday were in the 6ft range with S winds. Today has seen easing swells with 3-4ft of surf at S facing beaches and light S’lies, tending mod E’ly.

This week and weekend (Mar 12 - 16)

The broad, complex Tasman low which generated large S swells is now positioned on the other side of New Zealand with a lingering fetch of SSE-SE winds under the South Island. A much smaller, cut-off low NW  of Tasmania is linked via a trough line to TC Ilsa  off the Kimberly Coast and is expected to drift into the Tasman Sea tomorrow bringing a fresh S’ly flow to round off the week. A dynamic trough blocking pattern is then expected to unfold in the medium term. Details below. 

The stalled fetch off the South Island maintains plenty of SE swell through Thurs/Fri with size holding in the 3-4ft range. Winds won’t be friendly though with a SE-E flow expected and only brief periods of morning SSW-SW winds. 

Into the weekend and SE-ESE swell holds 3ft surf through Sat with winds tending N-NE and freshening. Sun sees a last kick in ESE swell to 3ft during the day with winds tricky as a trough approaches. We may see NW winds before a stiff SW-S change but we’ll finesse that on Friday.

Into next week and we have a dynamic pattern unfolding as a trough deepens near New Zealand over the weekend and aims up winds at East Tasmania. Expect a solid E-E/NE swell Mon in the 4-5ft range with favourable W’ly winds. Pencil that one into the schedule.

Source of great E/NE swell Mon/Tues

Swell from this source backs down a notch Tues but maintains plenty of size (3-4ft) with NW winds.

Winds feeding into the trough are expected to contract Northwards early next week producing a slow drop in E/NE swell from Tues but wilth swell lingering until Thurs under current modelling.

We may see a small low or trough form off Tasmania later next week, possibly Thurs, producing another spike in close range S swell.

We’ll take a last look at the weekend on Friday, seeya then.