Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell easing Fri wth NE windswell building
• NE windswell holds into Sat AM before easing with good winds early before freshening SW to S’ly winds
• Large S swell Sun, peaking Mon with fresh SSW winds
• Plenty of size Tues, easing from there 
• Fun sized SE swell later next week, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Fun S swell yesterday in the 2-3ft range has been replaced by building NE windswell today with sets to 3ft under NE winds tending NW in the a’noon as a low approaches. 

Plenty of fun for Good Friday

This weekend and next week (Apr8 - Apr14)

No great change to the very dynamic Easter weekend f/cast. A mid-latitude low slips East of Tasmania overnight and deepens rapidly as it merges with an incoming frontal system. The front brings a strong W tending SW’ly flow through Sat which will herald the start of a major S swell episode.

Sat sees easing NE swell to 2-3ft early, with strong offshore winds. Through the a’noon we’ll see new S swell show, quickly building into the 3ft range at S facing beaches.

Sunday sees a much bigger increase as the low moves back towards Tas and brings gales proximate to the East Coast. Expect strong/gale force SW winds with  S swells building to 6-8ft at S exposed breaks, and most spots wind affected.

Complex low East of the Island brings large S swells from Sun

A northwards push of gales into Mon sees another strong pulse rebuild, likely representing the peak of the swell. This should see 8ft surf build in at S exposed breaks possibly peaking in the 8-10ft range during the day, with smaller surf at more protected spots and fresh/strong SW winds.

We’ll see a nice long tail on this swell as the fetch occupies most of the lower Tasman and only slowly dissipates as it contracts Eastwards. 

In fact we’ll see plenty of size into Tues, with 6-8ft surf expected  and fresh S’ly winds. 

Easing swells are then expected from mid next week and into the weekend, although residual SE winds under the South Island should hold some small SE swell through that period. We’ll investigate that further Mon.

Longer term and we’re still looking at another complex low system approaching from the Southern Ocean. We’ll monitor over the weekend to see if this has potential in the Tasman Sea in the week beginning 17/3.

In the meantime hope you are enjoying these Autumn swells and have a great Easter weekend!