Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 29th March)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Pumping E swell Wed with offshore winds
• Clean E swell leftovers Thurs with a fast rising spike in S swell and fresh SW-W winds
• Small SE-ESE swell pulse Fri
• S swell spike Sat, easing Sun
• Quiet start to next week, potential for more S swell from Wed with uncertain outlook

Recap

E’ly swells built through Tues under fresh onshore winds as a trough of low pressure dipped southwards towards he Island. Today has seen clean conditions under offshore winds with strong 4-5ft surf, easing through the a’noon wth winds tending variable then SE.

Heaps of size with offshore winds

This week and next week (Mar 29 - Apr7)

Still a complex, troughy pattern in play with a slow moving trough of low pressure drifting south off the Gippsland coast towards waters East of Tasmania generating robust E swells. A front sweeping in behind the trough is bringing a return S’ly flow tomorrow. A belt of high pressure below the continent is now weakening and setting us up for a more benign pattern compared to Mondays notes. 

In the short run and the outlook is dynamic. The low sitting off the East coats maintains an E/NE-E infeed so E swell will hold in the 3ft range. A fetch of SSW-S strong winds adjacent to the Island quickly whips up S swell which will build into th 4f range at S facing beaches during the day. All this under fresh/strong S/SW winds which are likely to tend WSW-W through the day. 

The end of the working week sees the low contract to the SE with swell producing winds retreating. That’ll see S swell in the morning to 3ft, ease quickly through the day to 1-2ft with winds from the W/SW early tending S’ly as another cold front pushes up past the state.

Into the weekend and we should see another small kick in S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches as a last front sweeps up past the state with a W’ly flow on offer.

Reinforcing front brings small S swell Sat

This small pulse then backs down Sun with a tiny day of surf and offshore winds expected.

Next week and as mentioned, more benign conditions are now more likely for next week. High pressure moves quickly into the Tasman Sun into Mon and an expected surface trough off the Mid North Coast now looks less likely, with an elongated weak trough hovering parallel and close to the NSW Coast. That should see a couple of very quiet days in NETas with tiny surf and light winds.

The trough looks to spawn a small low off the South Coast/Gippsland region.

Into the end of the week and leading models differ greatly on expected outcomes. GFS suggests the low will be absorbed by a much stronger front and low forming a powerful progression of SW-S winds in the Tasman and a strong S swell building Wed/Thus.

EC maintains the low as a weak, amorphous, slow moving system North-East of Tasmania E swell produced as it lingers in the Tasman with a fetch aimed at Tasmania.

Model divergence in these periods of troughiness is par for the course so check back in Fri and we’ll have a clearer idea of how next week will shape up as well as a last look at the weekend.