Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27th March)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E swell builds quickly Tues under fresh onshore winds
• Pumping E swell Wed with offshore winds
• Clean leftovers Thurs
• Small SE-ESE swell pulse Fri
• S swell spike Sat, easing Sun
• Quiet start to next week, potential for E/NE swell from Wed

Recap

Another weekend of small S swell pulses with Sat seeing 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches and light winds with similar size on Sun. Today has seen  more of the same with mod S/SE winds. 

This week and next week (Mar 27 - Apr7)

Models have chopped and changed over the weekend as we expected with the troughy pattern on offer but we’ve got reasonable agreement now on the path ahead. A complex series of inland troughs are approaching from the interior dragging moist, unstable air down from the tropics. Weak, mobile high pressure in the Tasman gets reinforced by another rapidly weakening low well to the south of Tasmania tomorrow. A small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast moves south and aims a fetch of E’ly winds directly at East Coast Tasmania. Far to the south of this hot, soupy mess a series of stronger polar lows are traversing the Far Southern Ocean sending small long period S swell trains our way. 

In the short run the southwards moving trough brings onshore winds and building swells to NE Tas through Tues with size building from 2ft into the 4ft range under fresh E-E/NE winds. A write-off for most beaches.

E'ly fetch aimed straight at Tas brings plenty of E swell Tues/Wed with offshore winds Wed

Wednesday is a different story as another trough brings offshore winds all day. Surf in the 4-6ft range eases through the day under offshore winds. Make sure you get in Wed.

E swells continue to ease through Thurs with variable winds tending S-SSE as a trough hovers over the NE corner and a front passes the south of the state. Small levels of S swell will join the mix Thurs.

Friday should bottom out with a small mix of swells but keep eyes out for some SE-ESE groundswell which may supply some 2ft sets under light winds..

Into the weekend and a front and trough looks to bring a strong S’ly change Sat with accompanying spike in S swell to 3-4ft at S facing beaches.

Sunday should quieten down quickly with a leftovers to 2ft easing quickly under light winds.

Next week looks to open with tiny surf extending from Mon-Wed. We may see a trough of low pressure drift down from NSW bringing an increase in E/NE swell from Wed but it’s too far away to have any confidence in specifics. 

It’s another, unstable troughy pattern with poor model to model and run to run consistency.

We’ll have to see how it shapes up before making any preliminary calls, so check back Wed and we’ll run the ruler over it.