Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 24th March)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Fri
• Stronger S swell pulses this weekend, peaking Sun with better winds
• More S swell pulses next week, Tues and Thurs look biggest 
• Potential for solid E swell Tues/Wed as trough dips down towards Tasmania- low confidence so check back Mon

Recap

More small S-SSE swell continued yesterday with 1-2ft surf at S facing beaches and light/variable winds. Today is seeing size in a similar range with 1-2ft surf at S facing beaches  with light winds.

This weekend and next week (Mar 24 - 31)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast brings S’ly winds Sat with small amounts of S swell wrap as a large frontal progression traverses waters below the state. Expect size to 2ft at S facing beaches.

Sunday sees more favourable winds as the trough moves away and we get a NW flow across the state which will offer groomed conditions at S facing beaches and a stronger pulse of S swell providing sets to 3-4ft. 

Winds tend S’ly Mon as a strong front just tips the state in advance of a new high pressure ridge. Early SW winds tend S-SSE through the day. Sundays strong S swell pulse winds back through the day with sets to 2-3ft early, easing below 2ft through the a’noon.

The trough and a strong cradling high then combine to direct fresh E’ly winds at East Tasmania through Tues with short period E/SE swell rapidly building to 5-6ft during the day under a fresh onshore flow. 

Potential for chunky short range ESE swell to build Tues

Confidence is low on wind scenarios depending on where the trough ends up but we may see improving winds Wed with solid E swell from 4-6ft easing during the day. Check back Mon for a fine-tune.

We’re likely to see Tasmania under a broad  based W’ly flow as cold fronts push up over the state later next week. More S swells are on the menu including a long range SSE swell from a trapped fetch on the ice shelf. That should supply 2-3ft sets Thurs into Fri.

Expect major revisions on local winds when we come back Mon.

Check back then and have a great weekend!