Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized ENE swell starting Mon, holding at surfable size Tues/Wed with light/var winds, tending NW on Wed
• S’ly swell Fri with a rare SE groundswell supplying some inconsistent sets
• More small NE windswell on the cards for this weekend

Recap

Small waves over the weekend with Sat seeing 1-2ft of S swell at S facing beaches, under light N’ly winds. Surf was tiny on Sun and tiny surf has extended into today with light NE winds.

This week and next week (Jan23 - Feb3)

A troughy pattern exists through the Northern Tasman down to the South Coast with the remnants of TC 10P (named by JTWC but remained a cyclone for less than a day) drifting in a SW direction from out near New Caledonia as a weak sub-tropical low. A small low pressure cell near the South Coast is slowly drifting south bringing a variable NE flow and some useful E/NE swell as the fetch aims up at NETas.

In the short run we’re looking at light NE-E/NE winds through tomorrow with E/NE swell building into the 3ft range during the day as the small low drifts southwards.

Light/variable winds Wed morning supply ideal conditions for fun sized 3-4ft E/NE swell with size easing a notch during the day and winds tending NW as a front and trough approach from the West. Pencil in Wed.

W’ly winds Thurs preside over small leftovers in the 1-2ft range before winds tend SSE-SE late in the day as the trough moves through.

By Fri we should see a small bump in S swell from the passage of the front. Later in the day a rare SE groundswell from a storm force low under the South Island through today/tomorrow (see below) supplies some inconsistent 2-3ft sets. Light winds tend NNE and freshen on Fri as a high moves quickly into the Tasman.

Over the weekend we’ll see workable NE windswell build into the 3ft range Sat, mixed with some inconsistent SSE swell  as NE winds freshen off the South Coast down to Bass Strait.

Winds shift quickly Sun as a trough and front push through, likely tending SW to SSE as the trough moves NE of Tasmania during the day. Small leftovers from the NE in the 1-2ft range are expected Sun, although we can’t rule out some S swell through the a’noon, although Mon is more likely.

Into next week and Mondays small S swell pulse eases off Tues. Light and variable winds look to set in from Tues next week with surf retreating back to tiny levels. 

Check back Wed for a fresh update.