Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny waves over the weekend, mostly small refracted S swell 
• More small NE windswell starting Mon, holding at surfable size Tues/Wed next week
• S’ly change Thurs brings small S swell 
• More small NE windswell on the cards for next weekend

Recap

S swell with mod SE winds peaked yesterday in the 3ft range at S exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere. Small leftovers from the S today are topping out around 1-2ft at S exposed breaks, tiny elsewhere under light SW winds tending variable through the day.

This week and next week (Jan20 - Jan27)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The remnants of Wednesdays troughy change are now lingering off the NSW North Coast in the Tasman Sea and a weak high pressure cell moving over Tasmania  is maintaining a light/variable flow expected to extend across the weekend. Activity in the tropics has been intense but short-lived with TC Irene forming between New Caledonia and Vanuatu, now downgraded back to sub-tropical storm status and racing away to the SE (the grave-yard) without being a significant swell producer for the East Coast of Tasmania.

Not much surf expected over the weekend. Light winds are on offer so whatever surf you can find should be clean but absent any real swell sources we’re looking at some small S swell wrap with a few 2ft sets at S facing beaches Sat, easing back to tiny on Sun.

Into next week and high pressure drifting near New Zealand sets up a NE flow, possibly intensified by a trough off the South Coast.

That will see NE-E/NE winds develop on Mon with a pattern of winds from this direction extending through into Thurs. 

Weak but persistent E/NE winds generate some small Summer surf next week

Expect NE windswell to start to build Mon PM into the 1-2ft range, building further Tues into the 2-3ft range. This should hold into Wed, with a small amount of E/NE swell added to the mix from the trough in the Tasman. Nothing amazing but surfable everyday.

By Thurs a S’ly change is on the cards as a trough and front sweep past the state. We may see a small window of clean NE windswell Thurs before the change.

Small S swell is then expected Fri in the wake of the change, in the 2ft range.

Longer term and NE winds look to re-establish over next weekend suggesting another round of NE windswell over the last weekend in Jan.

Check back Mon and we’ll take a fresh look at it and in the meantime, have a great weekend!