Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell Tues PM, holding Wed AM before S’ly change in the a’noon
• New spike in S swell late Wed, peaking Thurs AM as front pushes through, easing Fri 
• Tiny waves over the weekend, mostly small refracted S swell 
• More small NE windswell Tues next week
• A quiet spell for most of next week into the weekend looks likely, check back Fri for revisions

Recap

NE swell has maintained fun waves across NE Tas with yesterday seeing 2-3ft surf with N winds and today holding in the same range with clean conditions as wind went offshore before a a S’ly change in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Jan18 - Jan27)

Weak high pressure sits in the Tasman now, maintaining a NE flow across NETas as a trough and front approach from the W and SW, bringing a S’ly change today. S’ly winds and swell quickly build in the wake of the trough.

In the short run and stiff and cool SW-SSW winds through tomorrow combine with plenty of S swell to 3-4ft at S facing breaks, easing during the day as winds shift more S’ly through the a’noon.

By Fri the S swell spike will be back to leftovers with some 2ft surf on offer early, easing during the day. Winds are light and variable as high pressure pushes across the state.

High pressure moves NE of the state over the weekend with a NE flow developing. This will stay light, not enough to generate any reliable NE windswell so we’ll be relying on some S swell wrap from a passing parent low in the Southern Ocean (see below). This long period S swell should show some 1-2ft sets at S facing beaches over the weekend under light onshore winds.

A quiet spell then looks likely to set in next week as more weak high pressure sets up in the Tasman. A weak but broad NE-E/NE flow sets up off the South Coast and lower Tasman and this should supply some 1-2ft NE swell Mon, possibly peaking in the 2ft range Tues under winds from the same direction.

Following that swells ease back to tiny under a very weak, synoptic environment. If models hold true we’re looking at surf becoming tiny from Wed, likely into next weekend 28/29 Jan.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.