Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat, easing Sun with winds switching NW-SW before an early S’ly change
• Spike in S swell Sun PM, eases Mon
• NE windswell Tues PM
• New spike in S swell likely Wed as front pushes through, easing Thurs

Recap

Fun waves through Thurs with some leftover 2 footers and light winds, tending NE in the a’noon. More light winds today, tending N/NE with small surf in the 1-2ft range.

This weekend and next week (Jan13 - Jan19)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. We’ve got a weak, blocking pattern with high pressure (1025 hPa) right smack bang in the middle of the Tasman directing an onshore flow along the Eastern Seaboard, becoming fresh NE off the South Coast and into Bass Strait over the weekend.

Building NE windswell should push from 2-3ft to 4ft during the a’noon with fresh NE-N winds accompanying it.

We’ll see a peak in size Sun AM in the 4-6ft range with a brief window of NW winds, possibly tending W-SW before a stiff S’ly flow establishes as a trough passes over the Island. Expect fresh/strong SSE winds in the a’noon with a spike in S swell to 4ft expected.

Get up early and hope the winds stay OK Sun morning as NE windswell peaks

Winds ease rapidly into Mon as the trough moves away and high pressure moves over the Island with winds tending E’ly as the high moves away to the SE during the day. Small leftover from the S to 3ft, quickly ease through the day.

A day of tiny surf is expected Tues with just a small bump in NE windswell now expected in the a’noon.

This carries over into Wed before a front and trough push through during the day, bringing a S’ly change and a spike in S swell to 3ft during the a’noon.

Under current modelling this spike should ease back quickly Thurs PM after peaking in the morning in the 4ft range.

Longer term and a new high pressure cell then approaches the Island later next week, bringing settled conditions, light winds and tiny surf through the end of next week and into the weekend.

Tropical developments stay too far north to generate any meaningful swell for Tasmania so we’re looking at another round of NE windswell to supply surf possibly late next weekend or early week beginning 23/1. 

Check back Mon and we’ll see how its shaping up and in the meantime have a great weekend!