Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mix of residual E swell and E/SE swell this weekend with light onshore winds
• Easing ESE swell early next week with more favourable winds
• Small fun SE-ESE swell Tues PM, extending into Wed with light  winds
• Surf easing to tiny later next week with NE windswell possible through the weekend

Recap

Plenty of strong E/NE swell yesterday in the 4-5ft range with mod SSE winds. Today is holding in the 4ft range with winds lighter than expected, allowing for some clean options across the NETas region.

This weekend and next week (Jan6 - Jan13)

Not much change expected for the weekend f/cast.

A large, moderate strength high (1025hPa) moves south of Tasmania tomorrow and in conjunction with a trough of low pressure in the Tasman is directing weak onshore winds to the East Coast of Tas. Expect weak E’ly winds Sat, tending more NE-N on Sunday.

Surf-wise, residual E swell from the low tracking through the Tasman will maintain fun sized E swell tomorrow in the 3ft range tomorrow, easing down into the 2-3ft range Sun and further into the 2ft range by the a’noon. Enough for fun waves all weekend.

Into the new week and a fetch near the South Island over the weekend now looks weaker and more constrained than modelled on Wed (see below) but should still be capable of generating 2-3ft of surf for Mon, easing during the day. Winds look good with light NW breezes as a weak, troughy pattern hovers off the South Coast.

Source of small ESE swell Sun

Small, fun surf in the 2ft range is then expected to continue through Tues/Wed generated by a couple of modest fetches out of Cook Strait and off the South Island. SE winds Tues should tend to light E’lies as a new high moves SE of the state.

Surf eases back to tiny from Thurs into the weekend. A developing N’ly to NE’ly fetch off the South Coast next weekend has good odds for NE windswell later next weekend. We’ll peg size in the 3ft range under freshening NE winds and see how it’s shaping up on Mon.

Check back then and have a great weekend!