Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another small mixed bag over the weekend, small NE swell Sat PM into Sun
• NE windswell swell likely peaking Mon
• S swell builds Mon PM as low forms E of Tas, peaks Tues with fresh S’ly winds
• Winds improving Wed with another S swell pulse Thur

Recap

Last of the the small S swell pulses have been on offer with a few 2ft sets yesterday, continuing into today with variable winds now tending N’ly. Size has generally been smaller than f/cast.

This weekend and next week (Dec2-Dec9)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A high is approaching Tasmania from the W, passing over the state tonight and setting up N’ly winds Sat before a trough brings a more variable SE-SW flow on Sunday.

No great surf is expected Sat with tiny surf in the 1ft range. A small boost in NE windswell overnight Sat should see some just surfable 1-1.5ft surf on Sunday before winds go onshore.

Into next week and Mon will see lingering NE windswell in the 2ft range before a rapid spike in S swell as a low moves E of the state (see below) and directs a proximate fetch of strong S’ly winds at the state. Expect size to ramp up into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches in the a’noon. 

As the low slowly drifts E size increases into Tues with sets to 6ft at S facing beaches and fresh S’ly winds, easing during the day as the low moves away and possibly tending more SW in the a’noon as another front approaches from the Southern ocean.

That front sees winds tend more W/NW to W on Wed with easing surf- likely in the 2-3ft range.

The front pushes SW winds into the Tasman and boosts wave heights a little Thurs up into the 3ft range under current modelling.

The rest of next week looks to have easing swells under a weak, troughy regime in the Tasman, with potential for a NE windswell over the weekend if a high develops a fetch off Gippsland into Bass Strait.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how that is shaping up. For now, have a great weekend!