Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Tues with offshore winds
• Small S swell pulse Wed , with another one Thurs- mostly under offshore winds as fronts pass over the state
• Another small mixed bag over the weekend, small NE swell Sat PM into Sun- possible late S swell
• Small S swells persist into Mon/Tues next week
• Small E/NE swell possible by Wed next week as low pressure drifts from Coral Sea towards New Zealand

Recap

Not much surf to recap with tiny waves over the weekend, tending to NE windswell Sun. Tiny surf has continued into today with winds tending more W to NW as a cold front crosses the state, bringing another cold offshore flow. 

This week and next week (Nov28-Dec9)

We’ve got an interesting looking pattern as we transition into Summer, with both active frontal systems transiting below the continent and a precursor monsoonal trough across the top end of Australia. A front pushing into the Tasman Sea and a deeper parent low bring S swell pulses this week while a trough of low pressure is expected to hive off the precursor monsoon trough mid week and sit in the Coral Sea later this week, bringing plenty of E swell for the sub-tropical Seaboard.

In the short run and the passage of the front through today into tomorrow brings a fresh W to SW flow through tomorrow and a small increase in refracted S swell wrap,  with size expected into the 2ft range at S facing beaches tomorrow.

By Wed another front and deep low is passing to the S of Tasmania (see below), bringing mod W/NW to W winds which will shift more NW/NW then SE as a high quickly fills in behind the front. Another pulse of S swell is expected to wrap in with size to 2-3ft at S facing beaches through the a’noon.

Stronger S swell from the deep fetch around the parent low then makes landfall Thur, boosting wave heights into the 3ft range during the day at S facing beaches. Light winds are expected as high pressure moves over the Island.

This pulses then eases through Fri with a few 2ft sets on offer at S facing beaches, easing during the a’noon. Light/mod N’ly winds are expected as high pressure moves E of the Island.

Into the weekend and we’ve got a small mixed bag on offer. A small NE fetch developing off the Gippsland coast looks enough to generate small  1-2ft NE windswell through Sat a’noon, extending into Sun before a trough brings a late S’ly change with some small S swell filling in late in the day.

Early next week and small S swells continue into Mon as another passing front supplies a small wrap with size back up to 2ft at S facing beaches and winds tending SW-SE in the wake of the front.

This pulse should ease back to tiny on Tues.

By Wed we should see a small amount of E/NE swell start to show from a trough of low pressure and fetch of SE-ESE winds in the Coral Sea which will be drifting out towards New Zealand early next week. 

There won’t be much left of if by the time it makes landfall on the NE coast but we should see some 2ft sets through Wed, into Thurs. 

Following that we may see another quick hit of NE windswell coming in Thurs PM before a S’ly change. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how this is shaping up.