Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Quick spike in NE windmill expected Mon AM, with N to NW winds, easing late in the day
• NE windswell leftovers Tues easing through the day with offshore winds
• S swell pulse Wed with offshore winds, easing through Thurs
• Stronger S swell expected Fri, easing though next Sat
• Last of the S swell expected Sun
• Possible E-NE swell from mid next week,check back Wed for updates

Recap

A few small waves over the weekend with Sat seeing small S swell in the 2-3ft range under mod/fresh SW-S winds. Sunday eased into the 1-2ft range with NW winds. Today is seeing a strong NE swell as a low approaches from the W and slides SW, dragging a powerful NE fetch into the Tas swell window. Size is in the 4-6ft range with fresh NW/N winds. 

This week and next week (Oct31-Nov11)

All the action is in the Southern states right now, with a deep dual-centred low pressure gyre backed up by a strong high moving in from the Indian Ocean generating a powerful fetch which is just behind Tasmania with respect to the S swell window. A front linked to this winter-style configuration links up with troughs extending through Northern Australia and the movement of that large scale system will drive cold SW’ly winds across the Island for the majority of the week. While we won’t get the full payload of S’ly swell from this system as the system gets shunted SW as it enters the swell window (NE would be ideal!) we’re still on track for a few usable S swell pulses this week with a trailing frontal system providing bigger S swell into and over the weekend.

In the short run and the NE swell being generated today extends into tomorrow with a little more size than f/cast on Fri. Expect size in the 2-3ft range initially with a minor pulse of NE swell in the 3ft range generated by gales off the NSW Coast as the fetch was being shunted Eastwards overnight. Mod W’ly winds provide groomed conditions and expect those winds to tend SW through the a’noon.

Small NE leftovers to 2ft on Wed get overtaken by new S swell during the a’noon, with sets to 2-3ft, under mod SW winds.

Stronger S swell then fills in Thurs as a broad front pushes through the Tasman past Tasmania (see below). Expect size to build into the 3-5ft range during the day at S facing beaches with continuing mod W’ly winds . 

This pulse of mixed period S swell trains then persists into Fri with a slow easing trend expected with surf dropping from 3ft to 2-3ft during the day. Early offshore winds Fri should tend to NE sea breezes as a small trough moves NE of the state.

Into the weekend and gales transiting the lower Tasman are expected to supply one last pulse of refracted S swell to 3ft during Sat with NW winds as a high moves into the Tasman and a trough lingers about the NE of the State.

Fun sized S swell extends into Sun morning with sets to 3ft and a weak, troughy pressure environment sees light winds all day, tending to sea breezes in the a’noon.

By next week we’ll see a pattern change as a large high moves under Tasmania, driving a more E’ly flow from the Tasman Sea, compared to the frontal W’ly flow this week.

Models are predicting a low to form in the Coral Sea and possibly drift down towards the North Island. This may be a source of swell for later next week for East Coast Tas.

Earlier next week we should see some small E swell, possibly NE if the high moves out in the Tasman quick enough. Pencil a couple of small days to start next week with a potential increase in E-NE swell from Wed next week.

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Wed.