Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small surf Fri 
• Small S swell Sat with W to SW winds
• Easing S swell Sun with NE winds developing in the a’noon
• Quick spike in NE windmill expected Mon AM, with N to NW winds, easing quickly during the day
• S swell pulse Wed with offshore winds, easing through Thurs
• Stronger S swell expected Fri, easing though next Sat

Recap

Great morning of surf Thurs with offshore winds and 4-6ft of surf which quickly eased through the day. Today is seeing small leftovers in the 2-3ft range with NW wind tending SW in the a’noon as a front pushes across the state. 

This weekend and next week (Oct28-Nov4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Our Autumnal run of surf and condition is now going to be replaced by a more late winter-style pattern, dominated by W’ly winds. A complex low pressure gyre is located over Tasmania with a trough having moved offshore from the NSW coast and a cold front pushing through Bass Strait today.

A fetch pushing into the Tasman from SW of Tasmania (see below) builds a small S swell through tomorrow under W’ly winds tending SW’ly through the day. Expect 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches.

This size should extend into Sun, with early SW winds tending NE through the a’noon as a trough moves NE of the state.

Into next week and a quick spike in NE windswell is expected Mon AM into Tues AM as another mid-latitude low approaches from the Bight and tightens the pressure gradient with the high in the Tasman. The low quickly approaches from the NW before being shunted S during the day, pushing the fetch away from the swell window. Prior to that NE windswell to 3-5ft is expected Mon AM with fresh N’ly winds tending NW or even W/NW during the day.

By Tues the NE windswell will have decreased into the 2-3ft range, easing right back through the day under fresh W/NW winds. 

From Wed the remnants of the low move E into the Tasman, effectively weakening as they do so. As the fetch is on the edge of the swell window it generates 3-4ft surf for Wed PM at S facing beaches with fresh W winds. Expect tiny surf early, building during the a’noon.

Size holds into Thurs at similar levels  before easing under a continuing fresh W’ly flow.

Another approaching frontal system is expected to bring another round of S swell into Fri, bigger than the previous pulses. Models light be overcooking swell from this system with a very zonal looking fetch but it does extend well south into the Southern Ocean so we’ll pencil in at least 3-5ft of S swell with SW winds.

We should see easing swells into next weekend as the frontal progression passes through.

There does seem to be more activity bubbling up in the South Pacific and Northern Coral Sea later next week so we’ll keep tabs on that over the weekend. Other than that, more troughiness is expected to redevelop the NSW Coast and Tasman suggesting our current unstable pattern will extend well into November.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!