Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Developing NE windswell Fri, with sizey surf all weekend and a late S’ly change Sat
• Strong SE winds Sun with spike in short range S-SE swell 
• Plenty of E swell building Mon, tending NE through Tues/Wed as trough forms E of Tasmania
• Winds tending more favourable from Wed, but revisions likely

Recap

Nothing much to recap since Mon- a few small 1-2ft waves from the south both days with a variable wind flow tending to NE breezes today.

This week and next week (Oct19-Oct 28)

We are in between patterns at present with a feeble trough off Southern NSW delaying the start of the next pattern. That will see an approaching inland low and high pressure system generate increasing NE winds across most of the Eastern Seaboard down towards Tasmania. The onshore flow is enhanced into a deeper tradewind flow up in the Coral Sea, which gets a boost from a trough of low pressure expected to form off the Central QLD Coast this weekend before drifting south as a surface low, bringing sizey swell from the East and dynamic weather. The trough of low-pressure from inland Victoria is expected to drift SE of Tasmania over the weekend with plenty of swell expected. All of which is to say the dominant swell trains will be from the NE to E through the short to medium term.

In the short run small surf is expected Thurs, mostly weak S swell with a weak ridge supplying morning land breezes ending to a’noon SE/NE breezes.

The N’ly pattern starts to kick in Fri with freshening NE to N’ly winds through the day and increasing levels of NE windswell expected. Size should kick into the 2-3ft range through the a’noon.

Much more solid NE windswell is then expected Sat with size in the 4-6ft range under NW winds and a late S’ly change as the trough line forms E of Tasmania.

Sunday is likely to be an unruly day with fresh S to SE winds and plenty of short range S to SE swell in the 3-5ft range. 

Into next week and the synoptic set-up looks dynamic albeit with plenty of onshore winds (see below). A strong high south of Tasmania anchors a fetch of E’ly winds feeding into the trough and this fetch gets tilted NE as the Coral Sea low starts to push south.

Expect onshore E’ly winds through Mon and surf building into the 5-6ft range.

Size holds into Tues, and likely Wed, with winds tilting to the NE under current modelling. 

A slow easing is expected from Wed PM, with size still in the 4ft range Thurs and easing into the 3-4ft range Fri.

Another inland trough/low is expected to pass just to the north of the state by Wed, and that should see winds tilt to the NW through W.

Expect plenty of revision between now and then though, so check back Fri for the latest.