Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small surf early this week apart from a tiny pulse of S swell Mon
• Another round of NE swell this week, first increase later Wed
• Much stronger NE swell Thurs/Fri with winds tending offshore Fri
• Easing NE swell Sat, with a new S swell PM
• Possible sizey S swell Sun, low confidence due to model divergence
• Small again through next week

Recap

Nice leftover NE swell on Sat saw continuing strong 6ft surf from the NE under light NW to N winds. Sunday eased back into the 2-3ft range and today has eased back to tiny surf with 1ft or so of small S swell trickling in across NE Tasmania.

This week and next week (Sep 19- 30)

We have a typical looking Spring pattern with a weak high over the NSW interior and some flabby fronts passing South of Tasmania. An approaching trough series and inland low adds action mid-week as it tightens the pressure gradient with a more southerly located high, developing a N’ly fetch off the NSW Coast and another round of chunky NE windswell making landfall from mid week.  Models are still divergence on the fate of the low once it moves into the Tasman, but there’s reasonable odds for a return serve of S’ly swell over the weekend as it does so.

Not much happening in the short run with a couple of tiny days ahead.

Ankle snappers through Tues with light N’lies.

By Wed a’noon we should see some signs of life as N’ly winds off the South Coast kick up some surfable levels of NE windswell into the 2ft range through the a’noon, under freshening N’lies.

Things get a bit juicier on Thursday as the inland low approaches and the NE infeed strengthens in much the same way as last weeks fetch did, although the position of the fetch mostly favours temperate NSW for most size (see below). We’re still looking at good quality 3-4ft of NE swell Thurs, under mod N to NNE winds.

Friday looks to be the day for best quality as the low and trough moves offshore and we get a NW’ly flow establish across the Island. NE swell holds in the 3-4ft range, easing a bit during the day and there should be some great fun waves to be had.

Into the weekend and the NE swell eases back through Sat with early size in the 2-3ft range, easing during the day and overlapped by new S swell as the trough forms a new  broad low in the Tasman.

Plenty of model divergence around Sunday so keep expectations pegged. EC model has a much weaker front merging with the remnants of the low, with the fetch weaker and more mobile. That suggests a marginal S swell Sun, with winds easing quickly, tending to NE breezes. 

GFS has a stronger system with S swell building into the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks with offshore WSW winds, tending NW through the day.

Very similar pattern to this week. Mon sees small leftovers in the 2ft range with a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea and inland troughs bringing unstable weather. 

Expect very small surf to set in Tues, with faint background swells holding surf in the tiny, 1ft range or so, with light winds. 

That pattern of tiny surf and light winds looks set to hold into Thurs/Fri of next week .

There’s some signs of frontal activity pushing through late next week which could offer some S swell by next weekend but it’s too far out to have any confidence in anything concrete at this stage. 

Plenty of on the radar this week, so check back in Wed for the latest.