Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• New round of NE windswell beginning Thurs with strong pulses Fri/Sat with improving winds
• Easing quickly Sun
• Looks like small surf next week apart from a tiny pulse of S swell Mon

Recap

Strong S swell yesterday was in the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches with light winds. Today has seen an easing of S swell with 3-4ft at S exposed breaks and freshening N’ly winds. 

This week and next week (Sep 14 - 23)

Typical Spring pattern with a slight La Niña/IOD twist unfolding at present. A large high is now moving into the Tasman, directing a N’ly flow along most of the Eastern seaboard. That flow intensifies in response to an approaching series of troughs and a complex low in the Bight generating some strong NE windswell for East Tas. The inland troughs are linked to the negative IOD, drawing in Indian Ocean moisture, and the Tasman Sea is expected to revert to a weak troughy pattern next week, with limited surf potential at this stage.

Freshening N’ly winds and a strengthening fetch off the NSW Coast  bring in a building trend in NE windswell through Thurs with size expected to build into the 3ft range.

It’s quite a chunky N’ly fetch off the NSW Coast late Thurs/early Fri morning (see below), but it quickly rotates out of the swell as a front approaches, with winds swinging. It  favours NETas for size, due to its position. That should see solid levels of NE swell Fri building from 4ft up into the 5-6ft range. Winds look good as the low approaches from the W, they should tend variable then W’ly through the a’noon as the swell peaks. Get onto it Friday!

Winds look good over the weekend, basically offshore, tending more NW Sat before a front passing over the state sees winds tend more W’ly on Sun.

Declining levels of NE swell will be the story this weekend. Sat AM will be the biggest with leftover 4ft sets, easing back during the day.

Leftovers Sun will be in the 2-3ft range, easing back through the day.

Into next week and it’s still looking very quiet. The complex low washes out and leaves a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman, with a high at sub-tropical latitudes. A Bass Strait fetch on Sun may generate some small 1-2ft S swell Mon under a continuing W’ly pattern but it barely seems worth working around.

From there we move into a period of knee high surf that extends through most of next week. So you can safely set aside Tues-Thurs as not worth frothing over on the surf front. 

A weak low is expected to form off the Mid North Coast later next week. GFS quickly scoots the low away with no real surf potential. EC has a stronger, and slower system that may see some useful E-E/NE swell develop late next week from winds infeeding into the low. Confidence is low in both assessments this far out. 

Frontal activity below the Bight looks zonal in nature next week but we may see some small refracted pulses of S swell by next weekend. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. Might be a good opportunity to fix some dings.