Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong long period S swell peaks  Mon, slowly eases Tues/Wed
• NE windswell  building Thurs with fresh NE winds, slowly easing  Fri with improving winds
• Tiny weekend ahead
• S swell likely Mon next week
• Uncertain outlook due to potential low in the Tasman next week, stay tuned for updates!

Recap

Small S’ly swells with days on the weekend with some 2ft sets at S facing beaches under a SW flow. Today has seen stronger long period S swell in the water, with sets to 4-5ft at S facing beaches, marred by a persistent S’ly flow. 

This week and next week (Sep5 – Sep 16)

Conditions should settle down quite quickly through the first half of the week as the rambunctious low which passed over Lord Howe Island on the weekend quickly scoots across to the North Island and beyond, generating some nice pulses of swell from fetches near the South Island and Cook Strait.

A large high (1031hPa) is approaching Tasmania and will drift into the Tasman Sea this week, with the S’ly ridge slowly weakening and then tending N’ly for the latter part of the week. A passing polar low is now tracking under the South Island having sent some pulses of long period Sly groundswell our way.

In the short run and S’ly winds slacken off tomorrow and tend variable, with mostly mid period S swell to 4-5ft early easing during the day.

S swell starts to get small on Wed with a few leftover 2ft sets, slightly bigger 2-3ft early, and variable/offshore winds likely before a freshening NE sea breeze in the a’noon.

This seabreeze heralds a strong N’ly flow developing off the South Coast and down to Bass Strait (see below), which is expected to produce a chunky NE windswell for Thurs, under fresh NE winds. At this stage we’re looking at sizey NE swell to build from 3ft, up into the 5-6ft range during the a’noon. Some long period SSE swell to 2ft will also be in the water, although hard to see amongst such a vigorous NE swell.

NE windswell holds into Fri morning in the 4-5ft range, easing during the day as a front pushes through and winds clock around from NNW to W/NW or W during the a’noon. That should see some excellent surf as winds clean up the swell. 

Not much action expected this weekend with tiny surf both days under a W’ly flow and no major swell sources.

Into next week and a front and potential low is expected to generate a S swell pulse for Mon, in the 3-5ft range with fresh S’lies.

Into the medium term and we mentioned in Fridays notes a pattern of enhanced troughiness in the Tasman and Coral Seas next week, and thats certainly looking probable now.

Models are suggesting a surface low form either off the MNC or further north. There is uncertain surf potential from this outlook- it may form too far north for Tasmania- but we’ll need a few more days as models start to solidify on the details before we rush into any calls.

More certain is some small S swell coming from a series of fronts passing below Tasmania which is likely to see more S swell later Mon into Tues.

Of course, quality will depend on any surface low forming in the Tasman, so we’ll need to hold our fire before we make any definite calls.

With major models struggling to resolve the troughiness (typical for La Niña spring/summers) we’ll pencil in a swell event for next week- likely from Tues, and come back Wed and fill in some of the details.

Seeya then.