Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Fri
• Small, long period  S swell Sat/Sun with fresh SW winds
• Strong long period S swell peaks  Mon, slowly eases Tues/Wed
• NE windswell developing Thurs next week, peaking Fri

Recap

No great surf to speak of with only tiny waves yesterday,  and a slight bump in S swell today with surf in the 2ft range at S facing beaches under a SW flow, now tending more W’ly.

This weekend and next week (Sep3 – Sep 9)

Complex and dynamic surface low forming off the NSW North Coast but this is too far north for Tas to benefit from, so the weekend will see small levels of long period refracted S swell, in the 2ft range both days with a SW flow persisting through the weekend. It won’t be great but there should be enough to scrape up a small grovel.

Bit of a downgrade for next weeks surf prospects. Firstly, because the S’ly flow remains more stubbornly entrenched through Mon and Tues- although we should start seeing morning land breezes develop at least by Tues morning. Secondly, the deep polar low outbreak now really winds up a little further E (favouring California!) so we’re more exposed to sideband energy rather than the main course.

We should still see some 4-5ft sets through Mon, with some inconsistency expected under a mod S’ly flow as a high pressure system approaches the state.

Size slowly eases through Tues with 3-4ft sets, and continuing S to SSE winds.

Into mid next week and the high pressure system moves into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow expected to develop down the South Coast and into Bass Strait. 

Wednesday looks like bottoming out with small S swell leftovers but by Thurs we’ll see workable levels of NE windswell build in, up into the 3ft range during the day with accompanying N to NE winds. 

Friday looks good with chunky NE windswell to 3-4ft and offshore winds as a front and low approach from the West.

Into next weekend and tiny surf is expected with a NW to W flow from a front and low, although we may see some S swell develop Sun as the low passes under Tasmania.

Longer term and we are back to our Old La Niña friend: the dynamic, troughy outlook in the Tasman Sea. That reduces confidence in the medium term outlook as models struggle to resolve the troughiness. With nothing concrete on the maps for now, we’ll come back Mon, with changes to report on no doubt.

In the mean-time have a great weekend, especially all the Dads out there!