Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 5th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell rapidly spikes Sat as low moves E of Tas, with stiff S’lies
• S swell tends SSE Sun with mod/fresh S to SE winds, easing into Mon with light winds
• E/SE rebuilds wave heights Tues with light winds
• E/SE swell supplemented by new E swell Wed with light N’ly winds
• E swell holds Thurs AM before easing with N’ly winds
• Surf easing Fri with small NE windswell on offer
• Potentially more NE windswell next weekend, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Fun levels of NE windswell in the 2-3ft range yesterday have eased back today with only a few 2ft sets leftover and continuing NW winds which are now tending W’ly as a front pushes into the Tasman and a low moves south of Tasmania. 

This weekend and next week (Aug5 - Aug 12)

We still have the complex low just about to enter the Tasman, weakening as it does so, with a trough and NW cloud band drifting across NSW. The N’ly flow is now tending more NW, with that trend continuing into a stiff SW-S flow through the weekend, driven by the decaying low which sets up SE of Tasmania by tomorrow morning.

That will see fresh SW winds, tending SSW then S’ly through the day and a fast rising S swell due to the proximity of the fetch.  Expect size to build into the 5-6ft range later in the a’noon, after a small start as short range S swell builds quickly after lunch.

That initial pulse eases and tends more SSE as the fetch between the low and large high continues to aim at Tas. Expect 4-5ft surf early, easing a notch during the day. Winds will be a problem with fresh S to SE winds all day.

Into next week and the outlook is much juicier than Wed’s notes suggested as the low reforms near New Zealand with multiple swell generating fetches in the Eastern Tas swell window (see below).

Monday sees this SSE swell ease back from 3-4ft to 3ft with light winds, as high pressure slips across the state. 

Light winds continue Tues as a weak troughy area lingers near the state. Expect small surf to rebuild from the E/SE as a fetch extending from the South Island generates swell for Tas. That will see surf build into the 3-4ft range during the day.

Wed looks great with a N’ly to NW’ly flow on offer and E/SE swell supplemented by new E swell with all sources seeing surf in the 3ft range rebuild into the 4-5ft range in the a’noon.

This swell, generated from Cook Strait gales well aimed at Tas holds in the 4ft range Thurs before easing with a mod N’ly flow expected as a high moves east of Tasmania.

The N’ly flow extends into Fri with small NE windswell expected to replace the easing groundswell sources to 2ft.

More NE windswell is expected next weekend, as a low approaches from the W. This could be potentially sizey depending on where he fetch forms and how long it stays in the swell window. 

Check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Until then have a great weekend!