Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 3rd August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another round of NE windswell possible Wed, peaking Thurs
• Small NE windswell endures Fri/Sat
• Small S swell spike Sun
• Small SE swell Mon, persisting at low levels into Wed

Recap

Small surf yesterday in the 1ft range has built into today as NE windswell reaches the 2-3ft range with NW to W winds. 

This week and next week (Aug3 - Aug 12)

Our Tasman Sea and Coral Sea swell windows remain very subdued as we move through the week. A monster, complex low system is slowly moving south of the Bight, expected to decay as it enters the Tasman Sea over the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure between New Caledonia and the North Island is rapidly moving south without generating much useful swell and mobile high pressure at a northerly latitude is setting up a N’ly flow for the rest of the week. High cloud from a NW cloud band (a result of the negative IOD) is streaming in from Indonesian waters. N'ly winds are broadening off the coast of NSW, as the pressure gradient is tightened between a mobile high and the approaching low.

The thick fetch of N’ly winds off the South Coast is not perfectly aligned but broad enough to continue to generate 2-3ft of NE windswell through Thurs, with fresh N’ly winds tending NW from lunchtime.

This size holds into Fri morning before easing as winds tend NW in response to the approaching low from the W.

Looking into the weekend and we’re looking at around 2ft of leftover NE windswell holding through Sat with continuing NW winds.

A broad low forms East of Tasmania in the remnants of the “super” low currently moving through the Bight. That will aim a SSE-SE fetch at Tasmania and generate new S-SE swell on Sunday into the 3ft range, with winds likely tending mod/fresh SE through the day.

Into next week and we’ll see SSE swell persist in the 3ft range, easing late in the day and into Tues with winds easing and tending light SE.

Small surf then sets in for a couple of days with a fetch of gales out of Cook Strait likely to see a small flush of E swell Wed. A small fetch under the South Island also contributes some small SE swell mid next week.

By the end of next week a new low is possible off the east Coast of Tasmania with potential for ESE swell, although winds look to be from the same direction. There’s not much model agreement so check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then.