Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid E/SE groundswell Sun, holding with plenty of size Mon and improving winds
• Another pulse of E/SE swell expected Wed next week with offshore winds
• Small E/SE swell lingers at low levels Thurs/Fri
• Small NE windswell this weekend

Recap

Lots of size over the weekend with Saturday seeing S swell in the 5-6ft range with fresh S’ly winds. Solid E/SE groundswell Sun saw size in the 6ft+ range with a lingering onshore flow. Today has seen size hold in the 4-6ft range with N’ly winds now tending NW through the day.

This week and next week (July11 – Jul 22)

The synoptic set-up this week is essentially the same as we described it in Friday’s notes. The remnants of the Tasman Low (ex ECL) are now drifting near the South Island, on top of a large high which is slowly moving out of the Tasman Sea. A high is approaching from the South Australian interior, with a trough expected to form off the coast later Tues and develop a broad, relatively weak low in the Central/Northern Tasman. It’s still a tricky set-up, but nowhere near as dynamic as the last couple of weeks. 

In the short run and small leftovers in the 2-3ft range pad out Tuesday, with winds W’ly then freshening from the S/SW as a front and trough sweep up past the East coast of Tasmania.

By Wed, that will have established a fresh SW flow with a mix of new short range S swell to 2-3ft and a last pulse of E/SE swell  generated by the former ECL lingering near the South Island (see below) as well as winds still off the West Coast of New Zealand. Expect size in the 3ft range all day from these two sources. 

That blend of S and E/SE swell will hold into Thurs morning in the 2-3ft range before easing during the day with winds tending SW through most of the day.

Into Fri and the weekend and the last of the ESE swell slowly fades out through the day, leaving tiny surf.

Sat should see a small signal of NE windswell start to build as a high in Spring-time position builds a N’ly fetch through Bass Strait. It’s only small- 1-2ft Sat- peaking in the 2ft range Sun before easing. Just enough to get a groveller going in mostly NW to N winds.

Into next week and GFS suggests a weak blocking pattern with tiny surf establishing.

EC model has a much more bullish outlook with a strong low forming in the Tasman and ESE swell seeing generated at moderate levels from Tues/Wed.

Check back Wed and we’ll have a fresh look at it.