Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed April 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-fresh W/NW winds Wed, fresh W/SW tending S Thu
• Small, mid-period S swell Thu PM, easing Fri with morning NW winds
• Inconsistent S groundswell Sun with W tending NE winds
• More inconsistent S’ly groundswell Wed
• Small NE windswell Wed-Fri
• NE summer style swell likely next weekend

Recap

Not much surf yesterday with only tiny waves. Today has seen surf build through the a’noon with inconsistent 2-3ft sets from the E/NE with winds tending W/NW before a front brought a fresh W/SW change.

This week and next week (Apr 19 - 30)

No great change to the f/cast this week. A cold front has pushed up past the state today with a much weaker fetch of strong SW winds due to be generated in our swell window Thursday.  That should see a mix of tiny long period S swell and building mid period S swell from the front up into the 2-3ft range on the south magnets into the afternoon but marred by the wind. 

Surf fades quickly through Fri with winds rapidly easing and becoming variable through the day. Early bird will see some small leftovers in the 2ft range.

Into the weekend and there’ll continue to be plenty of strong polar frontal activity in our swell window but it’ll be mostly too zonal to generate any major size.  Models now show a slightly stronger fetch with a bit more surf potential for S facing beaches on Sunday.

Sunday is the best chance for a wave with a refracted S’ly groundswell possibly providing 3-4ft sets on the south magnets.

Into next week and high pressure crosses the state early next week, leading to a couple of tiny days to start next week with settled conditions.

A NE fetch developing off the Western flank of the high on Wed is likely to see NE windswell building on the day. This small amount of NE windswell is likely to persist through the end of the week at low levels, likely topping out around 2-3ft on Thurs, but we’ll finesse that on Fri as we see how it shapes up.

Of more interest is a deep S to SSE swell generated by a polar low which becomes slow moving as it tracks under New Zealand over the weekend. 

While the fetch is still not well aimed back to the East Coast the sheer breadth of the fetch and high windspeeds are expected to see some refracted S’ly swell show up Wed in the 3ft range, easing through Thurs, with NE winds expected.

Longer term and summer style NE swells are expected through the end of next week and into the weekend 30/31 Apr.

Check back Fri for the latest.