Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed March 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulses Fri and over the weekend
• NE swell increasing Sun PM, peaking Mon, before easing quickly with good AM winds
• Quick spike of S swell Mon PM, easing Tues
• Strong S swell likely Thurs/Fri next week

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday was in the 1ft range and not worth worrying about. A small amount of S swell has lifted heights up into the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches today with a variable wind flow as a new high drifts across the state. 

This weekend and next week (Mar 25 - Apr 1)

A reinforcing high pressure cell is now moving to the East of Tasmania where it will become slow moving and generate light to mod N to NE winds over the weekend.

Strong frontal activity has generated a heap of S swell for the Southern States and is now beginning to impact Tasmania, primarily on the South facing shores.

These swells and the past two days of surf for the southern part of Tas, have been generated by a progression of healthy polar frontal systems, with the strongest but least favourably aimed currently passing under the state.

An initial polar low generated a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through the week, producing tomorrow morning's swell which should come in at 1-2ft, easing through the day.

The frontal system passing under us today is stronger, but less favourably aligned with a reinforcing pulse to 2ft due on Sunday.

Light N’ly winds Sat should freshen a notch Sunday with workable levels of NE windswell to 2ft building through the a’noon.

NE swell from the fetch of winds developing on the western flank of the high peaks Mon with sets to 3ft through the morning, easing during the day. Favourable N to NW winds freshen in advance of a front and trough which brings a fresh S to SSE change in the a’noon, so get in early.

Passing low and front brings quick spike in S swell Mon PM

Small amounts of S swell from the trough quickly diminish through Tuesday with variable winds as a troughiness lingers off the South Coast.

A much stronger cold front sweeps through Thurs, with size quickly ramping up from the S into the 3ft range, peaking at 3-4ft at S facing exposures Friday before easing.

Into next weekend and a strong low in the Tasman is poised to deliver strong swell to NSW but at this stage looks to be too far north for Tasmania. Thats likely to lead to easing surf into next weekend with only small levels of S swell on hand.

Check back Mon for the latest update and have a great weekend!