Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rapid build in short range S swell Mon
• Chunky SE swell Tues with light winds tending NE
• Chunky E/NE swell Wed, peaking Thurs with NE winds
• Surf cleaning up Fri, with W winds, tending S and a new S swell
• Fun levels of S swell Sat/Sun as a low hovers east of Tasmania

Recap

Not a great deal of action on the weekend. A few small swell trains on Sat saw 1-2ft surf with light winds. Small amounts of NE windswell perked up on Sunday a’noon under freshening NE winds but that small surf has eased right back into the 1-1.5ft range today. 

This week and next week (Mar 14 - 25)

The current high cell in the Tasman has a trough of low pressure perched atop it, maintaining an E’ly to SE’ly fetch at a southerly latitude- roughly due East of Sydney (see below). A stronger high at at even more Southerly latitude is South-west of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman to replace the current high cell.

SE winds feeding into a trough generate E/SE swell through Tues, building during the day into the 3ft range, with E to NE winds on the North side of the trough. There should be a period of variable winds opening up some fun waves before the Nor-easter kicks in.

That SE fetch now dips away from Tas on Wed, with an E/NE fetch off the south side of the high aimed spat the East Coast. That will see increasing E/NE to NE windswell into the 3ft+ range during the day with NE winds expected. 

Lots of E/NE winds aimed at Tasmania

An even bigger pulse of E/NE swell kicks heights up to 3-4ft Thurs morning before wave heights ease during the day. NE winds tend N’ly as a trough and front approach from the W.

Friday looks good with clearing W/SW winds before a change- which allows some clean 3ft surf from the NE before a rapid rise in new short range S to S/SE windswell, up into the 2-3ft range during the late a’noon, with freshening S to S/SE winds.

The weekend sees more S swell as a parent low moves slowly East then North-East of the Island. That should see surf build into the 2-3ft range Sat, up into the 3ft range Sun with SW to S’ly winds both days. There should be plenty of fun waves over the weekend.

Into next week and a couple of small days Mon and Tues are expected to be replaced with some workable NE windswell Wed as a NE fetch develops adjacent to the Island.

Looking to the west and the next approaching high is travelling at a much more northerly latitude, with a deep low tracking through the Southern Ocean, without being blocked. That suggests we may start to see some action from the southern swell window as the La Niña influenced Summer blocking pattern finally begins to break down. Thats just a heads up for now, we’ll track those developments through the week’s f/cast notes.

Check back Wed for the latest update.