Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent E/NE groundswell building later Sun, holding Mon, easing Tue
• E/SE swell building late Mon, easing Tue with W/SW tending strong S winds
• Strong SE swell building Wed, holding Thurs morning before easing
• Small mix of surf this weekend
• NE windswell likely Tues/Wed next week

Recap

Plenty of surf over the weekend with Sat seeing easing 6ft surf with glassy/lumpy surf and light breezes. Sunday saw a mix of S/SE swell and inconsistent 3-4ft E/NE swell with S/SE winds. 

Size has held into today with winds easing and tending E/SE.

This week and next week (Mar 7 - 19)

An unstable, troughy pattern persists across most of the East Coast with a large (1027hPa) high near New Zealand anchoring a long S/SE fetch from the South Island to Central Tasman Sea.  This will hold surf in the 3-4ft range through Tues, easing quickly overnight into Wed. Morning winds on Tues will be S/SW before tending S/SE and freshening during the day.

Another low forms in the trough line off the NSW Central Coast Tues, rapidly re-invigorating a robust S to S/SE fetch off the South to Central Coast before slowly drifting off to the SE later this week. This fetch is enhanced by a pressure gradient squeeze with another strong high currently moving East in the Bight.

Surf from this source is expected to build from the SE on Wed, with some added NE swell from a fetch infeeding into the developing low later Tues. 

That will see surf in the 3ft range Wed, push up strongly into the 4-5ft range, with fresh S/SE to S winds developing. 

The low slowly drifts away during Thurs, with plenty of size through the day, likely in the 4-5ft range early and slowly easing back to the 3ft mark with winds easing as the low moves away and pressure gradients slacken.

Surf eases right back Fri and into the weekend as a high pressure system slides to the east of the Island, bringing settled conditions and light sea breezes. 

A small pulse of refracted S’ly groundswell should keep surf from going flat with a few 2ft sets later Sat, easing back to 1-2ft during Sunday.

Longer term and into next week the high migrates towards New Zealand with a developing fetch of NE winds off the NSW Coast aimed at Tasmania. That should see surf start to build Tues into Wed from the NE. We’ll deal with specifics down the track but size in the 2-3ft range is expected. 

Bigger surf from the E/NE is possible as a broad area of low pressure gets dragged down from the sub-tropics next week, aiming up E/NE winds towards the South Coast of NSW and down to the Island state.

Check back Wed for updates.