Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan5)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong, stormy E/NE swell building Thurs/peaking Fri with strong E/NE winds Thurs, tending NE Fri
• S swell pulse mixed with leftover NE swell Sat
• Small leftovers Sun with light winds
• Tiny surf from Mon-Wed
• Small E swell likely from Thurs next week

Recap

NE groundswell from ex TC Seth has filled in through Tuesday with Maria Island buoy showing wave periods in the 12-14 second band and size in the 3-4ft range recorded with mod SE winds on offer. Size has held in the 3-4ft range today with S’ly winds, now tending E/SE. More swell from that quadrant is expected through the week. 

This week and next week (Jan3-Jan14)

The remnants of TC Seth have drifted northwards and are now located off the southern edge of the Fraser Coast, where the system is slowly dissipating. A strong high is now slipping in underneath Tasmania and the combination of the decaying ex cyclone, developing high pressure ridge and an interior trough is creating a long, broad fetch E/NE winds extending from New Caledonia down into the Central Tasman Sea.

This fetch gets super-charged off Bass Strait and adjacent to the east coast of Tasmania by an interior trough, with E to E/NE gales expected to develop off the Gippsland coast later tomorrow (see below).

This will see a steep increase in E/NE swell tomorrow off the East Coast of Tas, with size building from 2-3ft into the 6ft range. It’ll be close range and stormy with strong E to E/NE winds along the coast.

Size builds further on Fri as the fetch extends further up the South Coast of NSW and tilts more NE. That will see powerful, short range NE swell into the 8ft range, possibly 8-10ft at exposed breaks,  before it eases a notch during the a’noon. 

Into the weekend and residual NE swell is expected to see plenty of leftovers in the 3-4ft range Sat, with a S’ly change and trough system pushing local S’ly swell up into the 4ft range with fresh S’ly winds expected.

The trough moves away quickly leaving easing surf for Sun. Expect 3ft leftovers early, easing back into the 2ft range during the day.

Longer term and a period of small/tiny surf is expected through the early to middle part of next week. 

A new high pressure system tracking underneath Tasmania Wed and a trough system off the NSW South Coast should see a developing E’ly fetch aimed mostly at NSW. Despite the poor aim, radial spread should see some 2-3ft surf develop through Thurs into Fri next week, with a general E’ly wind flow.

Confidence is low on specifics this far out so check back in on Fri for the latest update.