Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 29)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Workable NE windswell Sat/Sun with N to NW winds
• NE groundswell Tues-Thurs as tropical low drifts south into Tasman Sea
• Strong S swell Tues-Thurs next week, possibly rebuilding Fri

Recap

Not much surf to speak of with only small 1-2ft surf yesterday and light E’ly winds, which has declined further into the 1ft range today with N’ly winds.

This week and next week (Dec 29-Jan7)

Fun NE windswell for New Years weekend.  

High pressure drifts into the Central Tasman sea to end the year with a well positioned NE fetch building along the NSW South Coast NYE. That should see NE windswell build into the 3ft range on Sat with N to NW winds on offer.

Size should hold Sun in the 3ft range before easing with NW winds possibly tending SSW in the a’noon.

NE groundswell from Tues-Thurs

The action in the tropics is hot and heavy with a tropical low (Invest 97S) located just south of Mornington Island in the western Gulf of Carpenteria. This low is expected to  track quickly across Cape York Peninsula, reforming in the Coral Sea within the next 24 hrs. It’s still a chance of then forming into a tropical cyclone, although it’s far more likely to remain a tropical low. Surf prospects from this low are now confirmed as excellent across the entire East Coast with major weather models expecting the system to track parallel to the East Coast, possibly reforming as a significant extra-tropical storm in the lower Tasman Sea next week. 

Tasmania won’t miss out with NE groundswell from the system showing up Tues. We should see some 2-3ft sets building in on Tues with a front seeing WSW to SW winds through the day. 

Wed should see the peak of the swell with some 3ft sets, possibly a few bigger 4footers during the day. This will be combining with a S’ly swell at the same time (details below).

Size then eases up Thursday with 3ft sets, easing back during the day.

S swell building Tues, peaking Wed, possibly rebuilding Thurs.

A strong S’ly front pushing through Tues sees surf from the S build into the 3-4ft range Tues a’noon. This front is likely to be strengthened by the tropical low tending to an extra-tropical system and blending with the front. That should see S swell up into the 4-6ft range Wed, possibly easing a notch before rebuilding Thurs into Fri.

With the long lead time serious revisions are likely to this scenario .

Check back Fri for a last look at it before the New Year.