Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep1)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell building  Fri, easing slowly through Sat, small leftovers Sun
• Small background ENE swell Mon/Tues next week
• Strong S swell Tues, easing Wed, with better winds

Recap

Not much on offer over the last couple of days with mostly unrideably small surf easing further into the 1ft range today and light N’ly winds.

This  week and next (Sep1- Sep 10)

Spring starts with pattern change and an unstable, dynamic synoptic outlook with several swell sources incoming. A large, multi-centred high pressure system is now moving SE through the Tasman, to join up with a partner cell on the other side of New Zealand, forming a downstream blocking pattern with ramifications for surf.

Initially, winds on the Western (East Coast Aus) side of the Tasman begin to freshen from the North and we’ll see that through the rest of the working week as the high pressure ridge gets squeezed by an approaching trough and front. That see small  NE windswell develop through Thurs PM, bigger Fri and holding Sat before the fetch gets shunted E’wards by a SE/NW angled trough which exits the coast Sat and forms a surface low on Sun.  At this stage, with a well positioned fetch and strong winds, surf should build into the 3ft range Thurs , building bigger overnight to be 5-6ft Fri, easing slightly through the day, with N’ly winds tending more NW through the day.

Sat sees leftovers in the 3-4ft range with winds tending SW as a trough and low form off the Gippsland coast. 

The low is positioned a bit too far north for Tasmania but the tail of the fetch should produce 2ft waves from the S through Sun and into Mon, with S’ly winds constraining surfable options.

A much bigger S pulse is then expected Tuesday as a strong front tied to a low pushes severe gale SSW winds from well below Tasmania up into the Tasman Sea. Surf pushes up into the 6ft range during Tuesday with strong SSW to S winds.

Wednesday looks a better bet as winds shift back to the NW and NNW and size eases back from 4ft into the 2ft range.

Longer term and a front pushing over Tasmania Thurs is likely to see a small bump in refracted S swell Fri. 

Check back Fri for fresh details.