Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Tuesday 19th March)

Best Days: Wed/Thurs: small easing SE swell, lighter winds. Fri/Sat AM: fun NE swell, mainly light winds. Wed/Thurs: solid S'ly swell, improving conditions as winds ease.

This week (Mar 20 - 22)

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*this week's Forecaster Notes will be occasionally brief and erratic, as Craig is on annual leave - they’ll be updated Tues/Thurs/Sun - to receive notification when they’re updated, please update your account preferences*

A stationary trough off the Southern NSW coast has displayed a healthy E/SE fetch off its southern flank over the last few days, which has generated plenty of surf although winds have been fresh southerly at times.

The trough has since weakened and as a result surf size is now slowly easing. This abating pattern will persist for the next few days, though the broad Tasman trough will remain slow moving for quite a while under a regional blocking pattern. 

Easing swells through Wednesday and Thursday will precede an increase around Friday, thanks to a new NE swell generated by a broad infeed into the Tasman trough (see below).

Although not very strong - and positioned a reasonable distance from Tasmania’s East Coast - we should see a building trend on Friday that’ll hold into the weekend. Set waves should manage 2ft+ from this source and local winds should be light and variable under a weak pressure pattern to finish the working week.

A small southerly fetch redeveloping at the southern end of the trough on Thursday may also generate some small sideband SE swell for Friday afternoon though no major size is expected. 

This weekend (Mat 23 - 24)

Friday’s peaky swell mix of NE and SE swell should persist into Saturday before easing slowly into Sunday. As such, expect fun 2ft+ sets for most of Saturday before smaller surf settles in on Sunday.

Saturday morning is shaping up to be nice and clean with light winds, but an approaching front from the west will freshen NE winds throughout the afternoon. Gusty W’ly winds will trail the passage of the front on Sunday though no new swell is expected so we’ll be looking at small residual energy - brushed clean by the fresh offshore breeze. 

As such, make the most of Saturday morning for the best waves of the weekend.

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

A much more vigorous front and low will cross the Tasmanian region early next week. We’ll see strengthening N’ly winds (and a small local windswell) on Monday ahead of gale force W’ly winds kicking in overnight, tending SW into Tuesday. 

A strong succession of follow up fronts further south will provide fresh southerly swells through the middle of the week though conditions will initially be quite windy as the swell builds (Tuesday afternoon). Wednesday and Thursday look better with a decent S’ly swell up to 4-5ft at south facing beaches, easing in size, and winds becoming light as a high ridges in from the west. 

More on this in Thursday’s update.