Small to tiny NE swells for the weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th December)

Best Days: No good days

Recap

A continuation of tiny surf yesterday and this morning.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Dec 27 - 30)

As touched on in Monday's notes, the coming forecast period isn't too flash for our region, with small to tiny N/NE-NE swells due mostly into the weekend, but under model expectations.

The end of the week isn't likely to provide anything rideable with localised N/NE winds off the southern NSW coast not extending down to us,

As a result the swell is expected to remain around a tiny 1ft tomorrow and Friday.

The fetch off the southern NSW coast will become broader and stronger through Friday and the weekend, with small levels of NE swell making its way down to us Saturday and Sunday but I wouldn't expect anything over 1-2ft at north-east magnets, tiny elsewhere.

Similar 1-2ft sets are likely Monday before the NE flow breaks down into Sunday evening.

Looking at the local winds and a W/NW offshore is due most of Saturday, giving into a late afternoon SE change, and then Sunday looks to see early S/SW winds, tending SE and then E/NE later. Monday will then see N/NE tending N/NW winds.

A strong and deepening low passing under us Saturday looks too zonal in nature to generate any S'ly groundswell for our coast, with more potential for the South Arm.

Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards at all for next week, so the outlook remains grim.

Comments

uncle-swap's picture
uncle-swap's picture
uncle-swap Wednesday, 26 Dec 2018 at 7:22pm

Interesting as other models are forecasting much more swell from friday through to monday.....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 26 Dec 2018 at 8:42pm

Yeah we'll see how it resolves Friday, but with swell decay I can't see there being much size over 2ft.

uncle-swap's picture
uncle-swap's picture
uncle-swap Wednesday, 26 Dec 2018 at 9:21pm

Thanks for the reply Craig.